Buccaneers vs Falcons Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 12

• The Falcons have won five consecutive games against the Buccaneers, matching their longest winning streak in this rivalry set over the 2008-2010 seasons.
• The Buccaneers are a league-worst 2-8 against the spread this season, including failing to cover in six straight games. 
• Eight consectuive games involving the Buccaneers have gone over the game total, with a low point total of 50 combined points scored in those games. 
• The Buccaneers have allowed 27 or more points in eight consecutive games, matching the longest streak for a team in the league since the 1970 merger with the 2016 Browns and the 2001 Colts.
• Through eight weeks, the Falcons defense ranked 31st in touchdown rate allowed per drive (35.9%), 32nd in scoring rate per drive (53.8%), and 32nd in third down conversion rate allowed (53.0%).
• Over their two games since the bye, they are first in third down conversion rate allowed (19.2%) and fifth in scoring rate per drive (19.0%) with zero touchdowns allowed on 21 opponent drives.
• The Falcons have allowed no touchdowns in back to back games for the first time since 2006.
• 86.1% of the non-passing fantasy points allowed by the Buccaneers come via receiving, the highest rate in the league.
• Just 19.9% of the yardage gained by the Falcons have been via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Matt Ryan: Ryan is coming off a season-high 10.0 yards per pass attempt in a far more challenging matchup than this one. Tampa Bay has allowed a top-10 scorer in seven of their past eight games while surrendering three or more touchdown passes in each of their past four games. Ryan had two top-five scoring weeks against the Bucs last season, throwing for 378 and 354 yards.
• Julio Jones: Jones hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3, but still has posted at least 90 yards receiving in four of his past five games with 25.2% of the team targets over that stretch. Jones has given every team fits for his career, but he has mashed against the Buccaneers. For his career, Jones averages 7.3 catches for 121.1 and 0.8 touchdowns per game versus the Bucs, including games of 9-138-1 and 10-144-0 a year ago. Tampa Bay is last in the league in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 options (23.7).
• Mike Evans: Evans had back-to-back quiet weeks for his standards, but is in position to have a high-upside game this week. Even with the Falcons defense coming out of their bye hot, they’ve still allowed strong WR1 games to Michael Thomas (13-152) and D.J. Moore (8-95). The Falcons are 31st in defending boundary wideouts this season.
• Calvin Ridley: Ridley had his highest target share of the season (25.0%) last week and turned in his best fantasy game of the year (8-143-1). Ridley had just 47 and 32 yards when these teams played a year ago, but the Bucs hemorrhage points to WR1 options, but also are just a bad pass defense all around. Opposing wide receivers have scored 57.6% of the fantasy points allowed by the Buccaneers, the highest rate in the league.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Chris Godwin: After posting four 100-yard games over his first six games this season, Godwin has had 43-74 yards in each of the four games since. Godwin hasn’t been higher than WR20 in each of his past four games, but has held a steady floor finishing as a top-25 scorer in three of those four games. 
• Jameis Winston: We know what we’re getting with Winston at this stage. A lot of yards and the potential for a lot of turnovers. Winston has thrown for 300-yards or more in five straight games and in seven of his past eight. He’s also thrown multiple interceptions in four of his past five games, which has lowered his ceiling since he has hasn’t thrown more than two touchdown passes in a game since Week 4. Knowing those pros and cons over that stretch, Winston has still been the QB13 or higher in four of those six games. The Falcons defense has been on fire out of their bye, but the high passing yardage is probable as Winston has hit high yardage against the Saints, Titans, and Panthers over this streak of 300-yard games. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Brian Hill: I definitely didn’t weigh in the Falcons just being a team that struggles to run on anyone enough last week and tunneled in on the matchup and opportunity for Hill last week. Hill played 39 snaps (60%) and handled 16-of-23 backfield touches. He lost out on two scores, once called back to penalty and another vulture by Qadree Ollison, but Hill has now carried 35 times for 91 yards over the past two games. The Bucs are not a run game target for pedestrian backs, ranking third in rushing points allowed per game (8.3) to backfields. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Ronald Jones: After playing 53.2% of the snaps in Seattle in Week 9, Jones has played 47.1% and 30.9% in the two games since. Last week, he handled just six touches for 14 yards. His pass-catching role from Week 10 evaporated last week as he ran 13 pass routes to 15 for Dare Ogunbowale. Just for grins, Peyton Barber also found the end zone for the second straight game, too. The Falcons have been steady versus the run this season, ranking 10th in yards per carry allowed (3.9) to the position.
• Russell Gage: Gage ran a route on just 64.7% of Ryan’s dropbacks in Week 11 after 86.9% in Week 10. The Bucs are an “all hands on deck” pass defense, But Gage hasn’t shown much of a ceiling so far, averaging 8.7 yards per catch since Mohamed Sanu was traded with just a 6-55 line combined over the past two weeks.

More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

IND at HOU | MIA at CLE | CAR at NO | NYG at CHI | OAK at NYJ | PIT at CIN | DET at WAS | SEA at PHI | TB at ATL | DEN at BUF | JAX at TEN | DAL at NE | GB at SF | BAL at LAR