|41.1%||20||Opp. Rush %||39.1%||10|
|58.9%||13||Opp. Pass %||60.9%||23|
- The Jaguars are just 2-8 in divisional games since the start of last season, ahead of just the Bengals (1-8) and the Jets (1-9) over that span.
- Tennessee leads the league in red zone touchdown rate (72.0%) while the Jaguars are 32nd (34.5%).
- Ryan Tannehill is 12-of-17 (70.6%) with six touchdowns in the red zone this season. Marcus Mariota was 6-of-13 (46.2%) with four touchdowns in the red zone.
- Derrick Henry is averaging 102.6 rushing yards per game at home (second in the league) as opposed to 63.8 yards per game on the road (13th).
- Henry is fourth in the league in runs of 10 or more yards (24) while Leonard Fournette is fifth (23).
- 61.8% of Fournette’s rushing yardage has come via gains of 10 or more yards, the highest rate for all running backs with 100 or more carries on the season.
- Fournette ranks 12th in the league in opportunities from inside of the 10-yard line (15), but ranks 120th in fantasy points scored (8.1) from that area of the field.
- 94.1% (16-of-17) of the Jacksonville offensive touchdowns have come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- Henry ranks seventh in fantasy points scored from inside of the 10-yard line (37.7) while ranking 21st in opportunities (11).
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Derrick Henry: Henry has been much better at home than on the road this season and has posted three top-10 scoring weeks over his past four games played. The Jaguars run defense looked to be turning the tide, but they have gotten gauged on the ground the past two games, allowing 26 carries for 173 yards and a touchdown to the Texans backfield and 30 carries for 236 yards and two touchdowns to the Colts backfield.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Leonard Fournette: After five straight RB1 scoring weeks, Fournette has been the R27 and RB21 the past two weeks. Fournette has been running into walls of late, rushing 19 times for 63 yards the past two games. He is averaging 0.07 yards before contact since Week 8 — the fewest in the league — after 1.28 yards before contact per carry through seven weeks. When these teams played in Week 3, the Titans held Fournette to 66 yards rushing on 15 carries despite allowing a 69-yard carry to him in the game. The floor-saving element for Fournette is that he’s still not coming off the field (87.3% snap share) and already has a career-high 47 receptions with five or more catches in each of his past three games.
- D.J. Chark: After averaging 4.0 catches for 51.7 yards over his previous four games, Chark caught 8-of-15 targets for 104 yards and two touchdowns in the first game with Foles back under center. His 15 targets (31.9% team share) were a season-high. Chark moves around a good amount, running 33% of his routes at LWR, 23% in the slot and 44% at RWR.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill has at least 18.9 fantasy points in each of his four starts with three top-10 scoring weeks over that span. Jacksonville has been stingy to opposing passers and they still get after the quarterback, which are cons despite his performance as a starter. Jacksonville is allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt over their past six games and they are fourth in the league in pressure rate (28.0%). Tannehill’s four starts have come against the 19th, 10th, 24th, and 29th ranked teams in pressure rate.
- Titans Passing Game: With Corey Davis and Delanie Walker potentially returning to the lineup, that muddies up this passing game. Tannehill has already had a flat target distribution as well. All of Davis (22), Jonnu Smith (22), Adam Humphries (19), and A.J. Brown (24) are all within five targets of each other with Tannehill under center. The Jaguars are middle of the pack in yardage allowed to opposing wideouts (159.3 per game) but have allowed just four wide receivers to catch a touchdown pass in a game this season. Against tight ends, they are eighth in yardage allowed (42.0 per game), but have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in three of their past five games.
- Nick Foles: Foles was the QB12 (17.8 points) in his return to the lineup. He threw for just 6.3 yards per pass attempt, but was able to ride Chark’s production. The Titans have allowed just three QB1 scoring weeks this season, but have allowed 300 yards passing to three of the past four passers they’ve faced.
More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: