The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams 49ers Monday Night Football game on November 25, 2019 at 8:15 pm ET.
BaltimoreRank@LA RamsRank
24.75Implied Total21.75
19.66Points All./Gm19.810
59.34Opp. Plays/Gm67.430
35.9%5Opp. Rush %39.9%14
64.1%28Opp. Pass %60.1%19
  • The Ravens have trailed for 24.5% of their offensive snaps this season, behind only the Patriots (18.6%).
  • Baltimore leads the league in scoring rate (56.7%) and touchdown rate (37.1%) per drive. Their previous season-long team-highs since drive data was tracked (1999) is a 42.9% scoring rate and a 25.3% touchdown rate.
  • Opponents have scored on 19.3% (second-lowest) and a touchdown on 10.5% (lowest) of their possessions versus the Rams since Week 6.
  • Over that same span, the Ravens defense ranks sixth in scoring rate (30.0%) and fifth in touchdown rate (14.0%) allowed. 
  • Since acquiring Marcus Peters, the Ravens are allowing 5.4 yards per pass play (fifth) after allowing 7.7 yards per pass play prior (27th).
  • The Rams rank first in the league defensively in rate of runs that fail to gain five or more yards (27.5%) and 10 or more yards (7.6%).
  • The Ravens lead the league in runs of five or more yards (144) and runs of 10 or more yards (53).

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Lamar Jackson: Jackson has scored 20 or more fantasy points in every game but one this season and is coming off throwing seven touchdown passes over the past two games. This will be a legit test for Jackson from a passing stance. The Rams are second in pressure rate (29.1%), have allowed one or fewer touchdown passes in eight of 10 games, and are fourth in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.7). Jackson has faced just three top-10 defenses in pressure rate (CLE, PIT, and NE) and in those games, he’s thrown for just 6.7 yards per attempt with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. The trump card is still the damage he can do with his legs and has been a top-three scorer in two of those three games, adding 31.7 fantasy points on the ground. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Mark Ingram: Ingram has reached 100 total yards in just one of his past seven games and has rushed for more than 52 yards in one of his past six, but is a touchdown-scoring back attached to the league’s highest-scoring offense, which makes him a must-play each week. 38.0% of Ingram’s points are from touchdowns, trailing only Aaron Jones (39.8%) and Todd Gurley (38.1%) among top-30 scoring backs on the season.
  • Mark Andrews: Andrews doesn’t play a ton of snaps (46.8% for the season) but the snaps he does play have high value for fantasy. Andrews is 32nd of all tight ends in snaps, but he runs a pass route on 67.8% of those snaps, which is second in the league at his position. More importantly, Andrews has been targeted on 31.2% of his routes run, which is the highest rate in the league. 
  • Cooper Kupp: Over his past five games, Kupp has a 20% target share and 0.44 weighted opportunity rating after a 28% target share and 0.62 weighted opportunity share over his first five games. During that run, he’s been a top-30 scorer in just one of those five games. As good as the Ravens defense has been since acquiring Peters, they have allowed five top-30 wideouts (four top-20) over that span in Tyler Lockett (5-61-1), Julian Edelman (10-89), Mohamed Sanu, (10-81-1), Tyler Boyd (6-62), and DeAndre Hopkins (7-80).
  • Todd Gurley: Gurley is coming off a season-high 28 touches and 133 yards from scrimmage last week. The Rams ran on 65.4% of their offensive plays in Week 1, the highest rate for a team in a game this season since Week 1 (Minnesota at 77.6%). In their two games since the bye, Gurley has posted his two highest yardage totals since Week 1. Just one back has cleared 65 rushing yards against the Ravens over their past six games, but they have allowed 110 and 122 yards rushing to combined backfields over their past two games.
  • Robert Woods: Woods was a surprise inactive last week due to a personal matter. Prior to that, he was coming off a 7-95 game on 11 targets. That 26.2% target share was his highest in a game since Week 1. The only game in which the Ravens have allowed multiple usable fantasy wideouts since getting stocked up on defense was against the Patriots. Kupp is a better bet overall if picking a Rams wideout to side with, but Woods wouldn’t have dramatically lower odds based on how opportunities have played out the past five weeks.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Jared Goff: Goff has been a QB1 in four of his past eight games, with the hits coming against the Bucs, Bengals, Falcons, and Seahawks with he down weeks coming against the Browns, 49ers, Steelers, and Bears. The Ravens resemble the latter defenses. Baltimore hasn’t allowed a QB1 scoring week since Week 3 and has shut down Russell Wilson (QB18), Tom Brady (QB20), and Deshaun Watson (28) since acquiring Peters and getting Jimmy Smith back.
  • Brandin Cooks: Cooks is on track to return this week after missing the past two games with a concussion. Cooks has been a WR3 or better in three of his eight games played this season as the Rams offensive line and Goff’s regression has limited their downfield passing game. Over the past four games, opposing passers are 6-of-27 (22.2%) with no touchdowns on passes 15 yards or further downfield versus the Ravens.
  • Gerald Everett: Everett is a tricky one to nail down just when he’ll see opportunities. Over his past six games, Everett had 11, 5, 10, 3, 12, and 1 target, trading three top-six scoring weeks for three weeks at TE29 or lower. Even when the matchups and personnel would signal spike like last week or versus the Bengals in Week 8, he’s been a crapshoot. The Ravens are fourth in the league in points allowed to opposing tight ends and have allowed just two TE1 scoring weeks on the season.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Marquise Brown: Brown is similar to Andrews in that he’s not playing a lot of snaps or running many routes per game. Brown has been targeted on 23.8% of his routes, which ranks 10th among wideouts. But the difference is that he plays a position that has a higher required floor of volume. Where Andrews ranks eight in targets per game at his position, Brown ranks 44th. This has made Brown a volatile fantasy option, regardless of matchup as Brown has three top-24 scoring weeks, but also four at WR49 or lower. The Rams allow the lowest rate of 20-yard pass plays (9.0%) in the league defensively.

More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

IND at HOU | MIA at CLE | CAR at NO | NYG at CHI | OAK at NYJ | PIT at CIN | DET at WAS | SEA at PHI | TB at ATL | DEN at BUF | JAX at TEN | DAL at NE | GB at SF | BAL at LAR