Panthers vs Saints Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 12

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon game on November 24, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

Carolina	Rank	@	New Orleans	Rank
7		Spread	-7
21.25		Implied Total	28.25
22.8	15	Points/Gm	23.8	13
25.7	25	Points All./Gm	19.9	12
65.5	9	Plays/Gm	63.9	15
66.4	26	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.3	6
37.7%	25	Rush%	39.3%	19
62.3%	8	Pass%	60.7%	14
39.8%	12	Opp. Rush %	34.0%	1
60.2%	21	Opp. Pass %	66.0%	32

Michael Thomas is averaging 132.8 receiving yards per game at home this season, trailing only Amari Cooper (134.6).
Opposing wide receivers have been targeted 71.9% of the time and have accounted for 70.0% of the receptions against the Panthers, the highest rates in the league.
Just 8.1% of Alvin Kamara’s fantasy points have come via touchdown production, behind only Leonard Fournette (3.5%) among top-24 scoring backs. Average touchdown production from that group is 24.4%.
The Panthers have allowed opponents to convert 65.7% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
62.1% (18-of-29) of the touchdowns allowed by the Panthers have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league. League average is 36.6%.
58.3% (14-of-24) of the offensive touchdowns scored by the Panthers have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
Christian McCaffrey has 40.6% of the Carolina fantasy points, the highest share for a running back in the league. Dalvin Cook is second at 29.5%.
The Panthers have scored on 24.4% (11-of-45) of their drives since their Week 7 bye week (29th in the league) after scoring on 41.2% (21-of-51) over their first four games with Kyle Allen under center.
Allen has been under pressure for 43.2% of his drop backs over his past four games, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Allen was under pressure for 30.6% of his drop backs over his first four starts, 27th highest.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Michael Thomas: Thomas has 19 more receptions than the next closest receiver this season. He’s had at least 11 targets in each of his past six games with at least eight receptions in seven consectuive games. Carolina has struggled to slow down top wideouts, with Davante Adams (7-118), Mike Evans (9-96), D.J. Chark (8-164-2), and Julio Jones (6-91) all having quality games against the Panthers over their past six games.
Alvin Kamara: Even with positive game script, Kamara’s usage remained high last week. He played 64.1% of the offensive snaps and handled 23 touches. That was the fifth time this season that he’s had at least 20 touches in a game after totaling five such games all of 2018. The fantasy issue for Kamara has been his touchdown drought, failing to score since Week 3. That dam could finally break here against a Carolina defense that has allowed a league-high 18 touchdowns to opposing backfields.
Christian McCaffrey: He’s been the most bettable fantasy option this season. Even without a touchdown last week, McCaffrey was the highest-scoring back. He’s now had at least 20 fantasy points in eight straight games. In five career games versus the Saints, McCaffrey has rushed 35 times for 119 yards and no scores, but has 29 catches for 324 yards and two touchdowns in those games.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

D.J. Moore: Over his past six games, Moore is averaging 10.5 targets, 7.0 receptions, and 86.3 receiving yards per game. Over that span, he’s out-targeted Curtis Samuel 63-44. The one hang-up with Moore is his lack of scoring upside. He’s found the end zone just once this season and has just one end zone target on the year.
Drew Brees: Brees has been a QB1 in three of his four full games played this season. He’s averaged just 6.4 and 6.5 yards per pass attempt over the past two weeks against the Falcons and Buccaneers, however, which has limited his yardage totals. Even with the affinity for allowing big weeks to wideouts, Carolina has still been a tougher fantasy draw for opposing passers for fantasy. They are seventh in passing points allowed per game (12.7) with just two top-12 scorers allowed on the season.
Jared Cook: Cook has been a TE1 option in each of his past four games played. He’s done so living off touchdown output, scoring in three of those weeks despite having 41 yards or fewer receiving in every game but one this season. The Panthers are third in the league in points allowed to opposing tight ends (8.6 per game) but haven’t faced a ton of volume as they do rank 26th in fantasy points allowed per target (1.91) to the position.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Kyle Allen: He’s been the QB17 or lower in each of his past four games and in six of his past seven starts. Over the past month, he’s thrown nine interceptions to just three touchdown passes. The Saints have allowed just one top-12 scoring passer over their past eight games.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Curtis Samuel: Samuel goes as his ability to find the end zone goes for fantasy. He hasn’t had more than four catches in a game since Week 3 and hasn’t topped 70 yards in a game since Week 2. In his six games without a touchdown, he’s been the average WR53 as opposed to the WR18 in the four weeks he’s found the paint. The Saints are 19th in touchdowns allowed to wideouts (10).
Greg Olsen: Olsen has been a top-12 scorer in just two of Allen’s eight starts this season. He’s had five or fewer targets in seven of those games played, but has caught 13-of-15 targets over the past two weeks. The Saints just allowed 10 receptions to Cameron Brate a week ago, but he was just the second tight end to have more than four receptions in a game against them this season.

More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: