The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots Sunday afternoon game on November 24, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.
|39.9%||15||Opp. Rush %||36.0%||6|
|60.1%||18||Opp. Pass %||64.0%||27|
- Including the postseason, the Patriots have won 20 consecutive games at home. That is the fifth-longest winning streak at home in NFL history and one behind the franchise record of 21-straight wins at home set over the 2002-2005 seasons.
- New England has allowed a scoring drive on 4-of-51 (9.8%) possessions this season at home, the lowest rate in the league.
- The 4.28 yards per play allowed by the Patriots (fewest in the league) are the fewest by a team through 10 games in a season since the 2008 Steelers (3.87).
- The Cowboys lead the league in yards per play offensively (6.7) for the season.
- Dallas is averaging the most yards per pass play (8.5) while the Patriots are allowing the fewest yards per pass play (4.8).
- The Patriots’ 5.1 yards per play on offense (24th in the league) are their fewest through 10 games in a season since 2008 and ahead of only the 2003 season in which Tom Brady started all 10 games.
- The Patriots have scored a touchdown on 5-of-36 drives (13.9%) over their past three games, 28th in the league.
- Out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Brady ranks 35th in completion rate (33.0%) and 34th in yards per pass attempt (3.8 Y/A) under pressure.
- Brady is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt at home this season (12th) as opposed to 6.1 Y/A on the road (37th).
- The Patriots are 31st in the league in expected points added via their rushing offense, ahead of only the Steelers.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Julian Edelman: Edelman has been a top-24 scorer in six straight games with three top-10 scoring weeks during that run. He’s had double-digit targets in five straight. Dallas had been stellar versus slot wideouts on the season, but allowed Detroit wideouts to catch eight passes for 150 yards and a touchdown from the slot a week ago.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Ezekiel Elliott: After three straight 100-yard games on the ground, Elliot has rushed 36 times for 92 yards combined the past two games. Elliott has also had two or fewer receptions in each of his past three games after catching 4.8 passes per game Weeks 4-7. That said, he’s finished lower than an RB2 just once this season and is still stacking touches, averaging 22.2 per game, which is sixth among all backs. The Patriots run defense bounced back last week, allowing 64 yards on 18 carries after allowing 149 and 141 rushing yards to backfields over their previous two games.
- James White: White had his first game last week in which he failed to score double-digit points (9.6) and was lower than an RB2 (RB30). He still received seven targets (second on the team). Dallas is 19th in receiving points allowed per game (11.2) to backfields and 27th in receptions allowed per game (6.2) to backs.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Tom Brady: Brady hasn’t been a QB1 in any of his past four games. He’s been a top-12 scorer in just two of his past seven games, with those games coming against Washington and the Giants. Brady has faced just two teams in terms of passing points allowed per game. In those games, he was the QB27 versus the Bills (3.7 points) and the QB20 (13.4) versus the Ravens. The Cowboys rank ninth in passing points allowed per game (13.3). Dallas also ranks sixth in pressure rate (27.5%), the highest a team has ranked entering a game versus the Patriots this season.
- Dak Prescott: Prescott has been phenomenal this season, scoring 18 or more fantasy points in every game but one. He’s coming in hot, throwing three touchdown passes in each of his past three games. But Prescott has faced just one team so far that is in the top half of the league in expected points added via pass defense and that was the Saints, his lowest-scoring game of the season (7.6 points). The Patriots are first in the league there (140.0 points) and haven’t allowed multiple touchdown passes in a game this season. Prescott’s mobility could help him out here as he ranks sixth in rushing points per game (3.7) among quarterbacks.
- Amari Cooper: Cooper had his snaps reduced last week (55.4%) as he continues to play through a knee injury. Cooper also has dramatic road splits; averaging 42.6 receiving yards per game on the road as opposed to 134.6 per game at home. That 92.0-yard difference is the largest in the league. This week he also has the unfortunate task of facing off with Stephon Gilmore, who is second in the NFL in rating allowed (43.5) and zero touchdowns in coverage this season despite being targeted 61 times, which his the 12th most in the league.
- Michael Gallup: Gallup has 23 targets the past two weeks, surpassing 20% of the team targets in back-to-back games for the first time since the opening two weeks of the season. Gallup will avoid Gilmore for most of the afternoon Sunday, but his consolation prize is Jason McCourty, who ranks seventh in rating allowed (61.6) with zero touchdowns in his coverage this season.
- Randall Cobb: Cobb has gone over 100 yards in back-to-back games for this first time since 2014. Prior to those two top-10 scoring weeks, Cobb was the WR42 or lower in each of his six previous games. The Patriots are fifth in points allowed to opposing slot receivers on the season.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Sony Michel: Michel has 17 total touches the past two weeks as the Patriots were scripted out against the Ravens and game planned around the Eagles run defense a week ago. Even outside of those games, the Patriots have struggled to run the ball effectively, rushing for 79 yards or fewer as a team in five straight games. Dallas can be run on, allowing 13.8 rushing points per game to backfields (20th) while allowing nine rushing touchdowns to running backs (tied for 24th).
- N’Keal Harry: With both Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett questionable and looking doubtful, Harry could be pressed in a large role in just his second game active. Harry played 32 snaps (20 routes) in his rookie debut, catching 3-of-4 targets for 18 yards. Unfortunately, he’ll have a tough assignment if he’s drawing attention. The boundary is not where to attack the Cowboys pass defense, where they’re fourth in the league in points allowed to perimeter wideouts.
More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: