The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 13 Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers Sunday afternoon game.
|39.53%||5||Opp. Rush %||39.79%||7|
|60.47%||28||Opp. Pass %||60.21%||26|
- Since Week 7, Miami is third in the NFL in scoring rate per drive (49.0%) while San Francisco is fifth (48.0%).
- The Dolphins are first in the league in yards per route run (1.58) as a team.
- The 49ers are second in yards per route run as a team (1.43).
- 38.1% of the Miami passing yardage has come after the catch, the lowest rate in the league.
- 58.9% of the San Francisco passing yardage has come after the catch, fourth in the league.
- 551.% of the Miami completions have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- 50.7% of the San Francisco completions have gained 10 or more yards, third in the league.
- San Francisco is allowing 1.37 points per drive, the fewest in the league.
- Miami is allowing 2.06 points per drive, 20th in the league.
- The 49ers have not allowed a touchdown on 18 second half possessions since Week 8.
- Miami is averaging a league-high 6.7 yards per play on first down.
- San Francisco is allowing a league-low 3.8 yards per play on first down.
Trust = spike production for that player
Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa comes into this week first among all quarterbacks in points per pass attempt (0.608). 9.6% of his completions have gone for touchdowns (second) while leading the league with 9.0 yards per pass attempt.
This is a big week to put everything we have loved about the Dolphins to the test. Since Tagovailoa returned to the field in Week 7, the Dolphins have faced pass defenses that rank 28th, 30th, 31st, 22nd, and 27th in yards allowed per pass attempt.
Tua gets bonus points for proving how good he has been for decimating those opponents, but the 49ers are eighth in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7 Y/A) while ranking second in the league in touchdown rate (2.5%) allowed to passers.
This also is a two-way street because the 49ers have faced just four quarterbacks this season that are in the top 15 of fantasy points per game. They opened the year facing Justin Fields (13.6 points) and Geno Smith (6.1 points), while the others have been Patrick Mahomes (26.9 points) and Justin Herbert (12.0 points). There are all kinds of shades of gray mixed into that sample.
Tua also will be playing this game without Terron Armstead at left tackle against a San Francisco defense that is sixth in the league in sack rate (8.3%). Tagovailoa has only 16 dropbacks this season with Armstead off of the field, but has been pressured on 53.3% of those dropbacks compared to a 22.8% pressure rate with him in the game. Tagovailoa has only been pressured on 23.4% of his dropbacks this season (29th), but he is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt when pressured (third).
At the end of things, this is a big statement week for both offensive units. In situations like this, I am always inclined to ride the offense. I doubt many gamers will be looking to stream for Tagovailoa and I am not doing so in the leagues where I have him. We also shouldn’t just lock in ceiling expectations, either, but Tagovailoa is still someone I am treating as a QB1.
Jimmy Garoppolo (TRUST): After his best fantasy game of the season in Week 11, Garoppolo immediately came back to Earth with his lowest-scoring week since his opening start of the season against Denver. Garoppolo threw for a season-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt with one touchdown pass against the Saints.
Garoppolo had the spike week in Week 11 as the QB4, but also has been the QB18 and now the QB21 in the two weeks surrounding that game.
Garoppolo is developing into a boom-or-bust QB2. The 49ers have so much talent on offense that he can run hot in the touchdown department any week. We also could see the 49ers pressed on the scoreboard here to force this into a shootout like we almost had versus Kansas City (Garoppolo was the QB10 that week).
Miami is not a matchup we need to be scared of. They are allowing a 67.7% completion rate (26th), 7.1 yards per attempt (16th), and a 4.4% touchdown rate (19th) as part of allowing 15.4 passing points per game (25th) to play for the upside outcome.
49ers RBs: Things have taken an interesting turn here in this backfield after the 49ers lost Elijah Mitchell to another MCL injury and it has been revealed that Christian McCaffrey is dealing with knee irritation that played a role in the 49ers limiting his usage.
McCaffrey has 38, 39, and 32 yards the past three weeks doing nearly all of his lifting in the passing game over that stretch. With just 14 and seven carries the previous two weeks, we have to question whether this is something that has been known longer than just coming to light last weekend.
McCaffrey is not expected to miss this weekend as of now, but we could see him shut down for a short-term spell while we will likely see more workload management if he continues to play through the issue.
McCaffrey has 24% of the team targets over the past four weeks to give him a receiving out, but this makes him a volatile fantasy play. If active, McCaffrey is a boom-or-bust RB2.
Tyrion Davis-Price was not active last week, so Jordan Mason stepped in once Mitchell exited the game as the closer. Mason has always been active for special teams purposes, so Davis-Price should not only be active this week, but potentially ahead of Mason since he was ahead of him from an offensive snap stance prior to the 49ers reshuffling the deck at running back a few weeks ago.
We also could see Tevin Coleman back up and even ahead of Davis-Price, which makes this a tougher spot to chase this week. Coleman was ahead of Davis-Price back in Week 6 right before they acquired McCaffrey, but then behind Davis-Price the week after before being placed on the practice squad.
Miami has been solid against the run, which is why I am more bullish on Garoppolo here paired with this running back situation. The Dolphins are allowing 3.66 YPC to backs (second) while just 18.3% of the running back carries versus Miami have resulted in a first down or touchdown (fourth-lowest). They have allowed nine touchdowns to backs on the ground (19th) while they are 20th in receiving points allowed per game to backs (9.7).
Jeff Wilson: After two stellar weeks when first joining the team, Wilson barely escaped a great matchup against the Texans last week, rushing 13 times for 39 yards and catching one pass for 13 yards. He did manage to smooth things out with a touchdown run to not completely bust once the game got out of hand and Miami pulled their starters.
We may get Raheem Mostert back this week. In Wilson’s two games with Mostert, he handled 57.1% and 50% of the backfield touches.
Wilson has faced three of the worst run defenses in the league since joining the Dolphins, drawing the Bears, Browns, and Texans. That is not the case here. San Francisco is allowing a league-low 3.19 YPC to backs while ranking first in the league in success rate (70.1%) against those carries. The most rushing yards a back has in a game against the 49ers is 59.
Just one running back had more than 63 yards from scrimmage in a game against the 49ers this year and that back now plays for them.
Wilson is a touchdown-dependent FLEX that can get a workload bump should Mostert remain out.
Tyreek Hill (TRUST): Hill secured 6-of-9 targets for 85 yards before the starters were pulled in the third quarter on Sunday. Hill leads all wide receivers in yards per route run (3.50) and target rate per route run (32.7%) on the season.
He is fourth in points per game (21.6) despite just 10.1% of his points scored coming from touchdowns, the lowest rate of all WR1 scorers in the league.
San Francisco is only middle of the pack in points allowed to opposing WR1 targets (14.2). The elite wide receivers they have faced have all gotten over. Cooper Kupp had games of 14-122-0 and 8-79-1 while DeAndre Hopkins had 9-91-0.
Hill also plays 40% of his snaps in the slot, which has been the area the 49ers are the weakest. San Francisco is allowing 10.6 yards per target (29th) and a 6.3% touchdown rate (25th) to opposing slot receivers. 46.7% of all wide receiver catches against them have come from the slot, the third-highest rate in the league.
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has carried more weekly volatility than Hill, but he has had more touchdown equity to make up some of the ground.
Waddle has three WR1 scoring weeks, two as a WR2, and another six as a WR3 or lower.
Waddle has 30 fewer targets than Hill, but he also has 49 more targets than the next closest Dolphin. This is a two-man target tree.
Waddle plays 80% of his snaps outside, where San Francisco has done a better job against wideouts. The 49ers are allowing 7.6 yards per target (sixth) and a 1.8% touchdown rate (second) to boundary wide receivers.
The target gap with more slot snaps going to Hill makes Waddle more of an upside WR2 than locked in WR1 this week in this matchup.
Brandon Aiyuk (TRUST): Aiyuk has outscored Deebo Samuel in four of their past five games played together and has a potential matchup advantage here. Miami plays man coverage on 39.2% of passing plays, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Against man coverage, Aiyuk has been targeted on a team-high 29.5% of his routes as opposed to a 19.1% target per route rate against zone coverage.
Aiyuk has been a WR3 or better in six straight games four WR2 or scoring weeks over that span.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been all over the place this season when it comes to the close of each week. Over his past eight games played, Samuel has been outside of the top-30 scoring wide receivers five times with a pair of top-six overall scoring weeks in that span. Over the past month, Samuel has been the WR45, WR58, WR5, and WR66.
Samuel has been dealing with a hamstring issue that has limited his practice time and forced him to miss Week 8 outright. That could be slowing him down, but Samuel has been a boom-or-bust WR2 here. He has a higher weekly ceiling than Aiyuk but has also had a much lower floor. Samuel has not hit 60 receiving yards in a game since Week 6.
From a matchup stance, Samuel has the inverse splits that Aiyuk does. Samuel has been targeted on just 15.5% of his routes versus man coverage as opposed to a team-high 26.4% target rate per route against zone coverage.
George Kittle (TRUST): The Kittle fantasy life is a tough one. Kittle was targeted just four times on Sunday, catching three of those looks for 26 yards. Since coming back to the lineup in Week 3, Kittle has four TE1 scoring weeks, but also five weeks as the TE20 or lower.
There has been no middle ground with Kittle as a boom-or-bust TE1. He has not had more than six targets in a game since Week 7.
We can play for the upside here as Miami is allowing 7.6 yards per target (22nd) and an 8.2% touchdown rate (28th) to opposing tight ends while allowing 6.3 catches per game (31st) to the position.
More Week 13 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
BUF at NE | DEN at BAL | GB at CHI | WAS at NYG | JAX at DET | NYJ at MIN | CLE at HOU | PIT at ATL | TEN at PHI | MIA at SF | SEA at LAR | KC at CIN | LAC at LVR | IND at DAL | NO at TB