The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 13 Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon game.
|33.80%||1||Opp. Rush %||40.75%||9|
|66.20%||32||Opp. Pass %||59.25%||24|
- The Titans are 10th in the league in points per drive in the first half of games (2.41) but are 31st in points per drive in the second half (1.0).
- 70.3% of the Tennessee points have been scored in the first half this season, the highest rate in the league.
- 67.7% of the Philadelphia points scored have been in the first half this season, second in the league.
- 86.4% (19-of-22) of the touchdowns allowed by Tennessee have come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- 55.3% (21-of-38) of the touchdowns scored by the Eagles have come via rushing, third in the league.
- 31.9% of the Philadelphia rushing attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, third in the league.
- 20.5% of the Tennessee rushing attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the league.
- 20.2% of the Tennessee yardage over the past three weeks has come via rushing, the lowest rate in the league over that span.
Trust = spike production for that player
Jalen Hurts: Hurts completed just 57.1% of his passes (his lowest rate since Week 1) for a season-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt on Sunday night, but it didn’t slow him down for fantasy at all. Hurts still closed as the QB2 (29.8 points) as he threw a pair of touchdowns and rushed for a career-high 157 yards.
Hurts has now been a QB1 in every start but one this season and a top-six scorer in all but two games.
After a slight rushing lull Weeks 6-10, Hurts has come back with 14.6 and 15.7 rushing points the past two weeks. Hurts has needed that rushing return as he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of the past three games.
We are setting in Hurts as a QB1, but he will need it here as well. Tennessee has been much better against the pass of late compared to the start of the season. They are allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt (third) since Week 7 after allowing a league-high 8.4 yards per attempt prior. They have run into a soft slate overall over that span but have faced Patrick Mahomes (6.6 Y/A) and Joe Burrow (7.3 Y/A) as well. Only Mahomes has been a top-10 scorer against the Titans over that span, and he threw the ball 68 times in that game.
Hurts is not going to approach that total, but he also has not thrown the ball 30 times in a game since Week 5. He will be pressed to throw the ball here as the Titans are an extreme pass funnel defense. The Eagles can run on anyone with Hurts incorporated, so this will be a unique matchup.
The Titans did allow 63 yards and a score rushing to Mahomes while Burrow just ran for 32 yards this past week.
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill threw for 291 yards and 8.6 yards per attempt last week, but without a touchdown through the air, those were empty calories for fantasy. Tannehill has now been a QB1 in three of his nine games.
It will be hard to treat him as more than a QB2 here. The Eagles have not allowed anyone to finish higher than QB14 in a game this season. They are coming off allowing three passing touchdowns and 10.1 yards per pass attempt on Sunday Night against Green Bay to keep the door open for Tannehill to have efficiency. Tannehill did score 19.4 points two weeks ago against Denver to keep an upside outcome on the table.
Derrick Henry: Henry once again struggled to find room on the ground on Sunday, rushing 17 times for 38 yards. Over the past three games, Henry has 64 carries for 178 yards (2.78 YPC). Henry popped up on the injury report three weeks ago with a foot injury, which coincides with the downturn. That could be happenstance since Henry is still getting a large workload, but something to keep a pin in if Henry is working through something at this stage of the season.
In years past, that rushing outcome would destroy Henry’s fantasy week, but he caught three passes for 79 yards on Sunday, pushing him over 100 total yards for the eighth time over his past nine games.
Henry now already has new career highs with 21 receptions for 278 yards through the air. He has at least two receptions in seven of his past nine games. He Is not Austin Ekeler, but his floor has been higher as a result of just a few passing game opportunities per week. This keeps Henry in play as an RB1 even with the Titans struggling to run the football.
The Eagles have thrown a lot at the wall trying to shore up their run defense. In Week 12, they were solid when both Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh were on the field, but Green Bay backs rushed 18 times for 91 yards (5.06 YPC) with a touchdown with those two on the field Sunday Night. Philly had just a 55.6% success rate on those running back carries.
We know Henry is going to get his rushing touches and the Eagles are allowing 15.4 rushing points per game to backs (23rd).
Miles Sanders: After two weeks as the RB40 and RB37, Sanders and this running game looked like they did to close the 2021 season on Sunday night. Sanders rushed 21 times for a season-high 143 yards, reaching the end zone twice in the process. After zero touchdowns in 2021, Sanders now has eight rushing scores this season.
This has been the story all season with Sanders. He needs to reach the end zone or be hyper-efficient on the ground and he did both Sunday night. In his six games with a touchdown this year, Sanders is averaging 20.4 PPR points per game. In his other five games, he is averaging 7.3 points per game.
Sanders is a touchdown-dependent RB2 that will need to fall into the end zone here. The Titans have allowed 3.81 YPC to backs (fifth) with a 67.5% success rate (fourth) on those carries. Opposing backs have just two rushing touchdowns against Tennessee.
A.J. Brown (TRUST): Brown battled through an illness Sunday night to catch 4-of-6 targets for 46 yards and his seventh touchdown of the season. The touchdown salvaged the week, but Brown has now been outside of the top-30 scoring wide receivers in three straight weeks. He hasn’t had more than 60 yards in a game since Week 8 and has topped 70 yards in just one of his past seven games.
Facing his old team is a great place to get back on track. The Titans are an extreme pass funnel defense that faces 21.4 targets per game to opposing wideouts (third most). From a top-down stance, the Titans are allowing 8.7 yards per target (25th) and a 5.9% touchdown rate (29th) on those wide receiver targets.
The Titans are allowing 16.4 points per game to opposing WR1 (24th).
DeVonta Smith (TRUST): Smith has out-targeted Brown in each of the past three games, seeing 32.0%, 39.1%, and 36.0% of the team targets over that span. He only managed four catches for 50 yards on Sunday night on his nine targets, but Smith has now seen 38.2% of the team targets this season on 96 routes run without Dallas Goedert on the field.
Smith plays 78% of his snaps on the outside, where the Titans are allowing 9.4 yards per target (29th) and 123.7 receiving yards per game (31st) to opposing receivers.
Smith does not have the touchdown equity of Brown, but he is in a good position to see another high number of targets in a great matchup.
Treylon Burks: Burks continued to see his playing time rise. Burks ran a pass route on 81.1% of the dropbacks Sunday. That was his highest rate since returning from injury and the first time he ran more pass routes than Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in a game since Week 3.
Burks still only had 17.7% of the team targets and six counting targets, so we still are looking for more volume to latch onto, but he made his targets count, catching four of them for 70 yards. He also scored his first touchdown, recovering a fumble in the end zone. Burks has a reception of 50-plus yards in each of the past two weeks.
Burks is playing 84% of his snaps out wide since returning from injury, which is the toughest spot to target the Eagles. Against boundary wideouts, the Eagles are allowing a 54.9% catch rate (third), 6.5 yards per target (third), and a 3.3% touchdown rate (ninth).
Burks is still ascending but is a boom-or-bust FLEX option here.
Robert Woods: After a solid 6-69-0 line in Week 11, Woods caught just 2-of-6 targets for 16 yards on Sunday. He still has just two top-40 scoring weeks on the season with one touchdown. Woods has been targeted at a lower rate per route run (21.1%) than Burks (25.0%).
Woods is a low-ceiling FLEX in only deeper full-PPR formats.
Quez Watkins: Watkins has scored in each of the past two weeks and has double-digit PPR points in three straight games. Watkins is still a touchdown or bust dart play for thin rosters, but he did run a route on 82.9% of the dropbacks Sunday Night, which was a season-high.
Watkins is averaging 12.4 air yards per target and leads the Eagles with 27.3% of his targets coming on deep targets. On deep targets, Tennessee is 28th in completion rate allowed (50%) while allowing the second most passing touchdowns (six).
Titans TEs: This is still a three-way split with Austin Hooper (27 pass routes), Chigoziem Okonkwo (13 routes), and Geoff Swaim (nine routes) all drawing playing time in the passing game. For the season, this outfit has combined for three TE1 scorings, all weeks in which one of them scored a touchdown.
That leaves this group as touchdown or bust plays against an Eagles defense that has allowed 5.8 yards per target (fifth) and a 4.2% touchdown rate (12th) to tight ends.
Eagles TEs: Jack Stoll led the tight ends here with 64 snaps (80%) while Grant Calcaterra (23 snaps) and Tyree Jackson (five) played ancillary roles.
Stoll did not see a target and has just one catch for seven yards since the team lost Dallas Goedert to injury. He is not a fantasy-viable play unless hoping he catches a target in the end zone.
More Week 13 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: