Lions vs. Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 14

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Lions and Packers on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jared Goff: Goff was QB16 (16.9 points) last week on Thanksgiving, completing 21-of-34 (61.8%) for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Goff has an interesting season for fantasy football compared to top-down output for his seasonal metrics.

Goff is second in the NFL in completion rate (71.8%), leads the NFL with 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and is fourth in the league with a 6.5% touchdown rate.

But he has just one QB1 scoring week over his past six games played and has only four weeks this season finishing higher than QB16.

Last week, I compared his season to recent seasons from Tua Tagovailoa, who led the league in several categories but had most of his fantasy output over a handful of massive games.

Goff was QB28 (9.6 points) when these teams met in Week 9, but there is not much to pry out of that game.

They played in sloppy conditions with the Packers providing zero pushback.

He only averaged 3.7 air yards per attempt, his second-lowest mark in a game this season.

Detroit played conservatively game in the rain that week, but those two games with Goff's lowest depth of target also aligned with the absence of Jameson Williams.

With Williams on the field, Goff’s average target depth is 7.4 yards downfield, double his rate from Week 9.

Detroit controlled that game, calling a dropback on only 34.5% of their second-half snaps and 31.3% in the fourth quarter.

We are looking for more push here in the rematch.

The Green Bay pass defense is still one predicated on generating pressure.

On Thanksgiving, they only allowed 6.4 Y/A when pressuring Tagovailoa compared to 8.4 Y/A without pressure.

For the season, they have allowed 8.3 Y/A (27th) and a 5.6% touchdown rate (29th) without pressure compared to 4.5 Y/A (2nd) and 0.0% touchdown rate (1st) when pressuring the opposing passer.

When they pressured Goff in Week 9, he was 4-of-6 for 22 yards (3.7 Y/A).

Without pressure, Goff hit 14-of-16 passes for 123 yards (7.7 Y/A) with a touchdown.

I expect Goff to be better in this game based on being at home and expecting more push on the scoreboard, but I prefer to use him as a floor-based QB2 with upside over outright chasing a ceiling outcome here.

Jordan Love: Love was efficient on Thursday night, connecting on 21-of-28 passes for 274 yards (9.8 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns.

He ended the week as the QB15 (19.0 points).

Love has only two top-10 scoring weeks this season, but he rarely has bottomed out.

Last week’s line was not a ceiling game, but it would have been suitable for a QB1 scoring week in many other weeks.

Despite not logging a QB1 week in the context of last week’s scoring, Love has finished in the front half of weekly scoring in all but two games this season.

One of those he left early with a groin injury in Jacksonville.

The other was the following week against Detroit, playing through that injury.

Love was QB25 (10.9 points) that week, completing 23-of-39 passes for 273 yards (7.0 Y/A) without a touchdown and throwing an interception.

Love is healthier here, and the indoor conditions are vastly improved from that matchup in the rain.

Green Bay should be pressed to throw more than in recent weeks.

Since their Week 10 bye, Green Bay has had 46.5%, 37.3%, and 52.8% dropback rates.

Opponents have a 67.7% dropback rate against the Lions with a low mark of 57.4% in a game this season.

This game has plenty of shootout appeal, but the matchup is still tough on paper, so I prefer Love on the QB1/Q2 line.

From a single-game DFS angle, he would be the stacking choice if picking from one side to play this game.

Detroit allows the fewest passing points per attempt in the league (0.301).

They did show some vulnerability in the second half of Thanksgiving to Caleb Williams, allowing 189 passing yards and 3 touchdowns to the rookie.

Love and his pass catchers can challenge Detroit in a way Chicago did.

Detroit did not have Carlton Davis on Thanksgiving, who is expected to play this week.

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Running Back

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs only ran for 43 yards on 19 attempts on Thanksgiving (2.3 YPC), but he found the end zone for the third straight game on the ground while adding a season-high 74 yards receiving on four catches, anchored by a career-long 49-yard catch.

Jacobs had topped 28 yards receiving in just one other game this season before that 49-yard catch and run.

Jacobs has now topped 100 yards from scrimmage in five consecutive games.

That includes turning 15 touches into 108 yards when these teams played in Week 9.

Jacobs had a 37-yard run in that game, part of his explosive play spike in Green Bay.

After a career-low of 3.9% of his runs gained 10 or more yards in 2023, Jacobs has an 11.8% rate this season, the second-highest rate of his career.

His touchdown equity, explosive plays, and the game environment keep Jacobs in play on the RB1/RB2 line.

He and all of those components will be rechallenged in this rematch.

The Lions allow 3.96 yards per carry to running backs (5th) and 10.1 rushing points per game (4th) to backfields.

On top of that, they allow only 5.6 receiving points per game to the position (2nd).

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs was explosive on Thanksgiving, turning 11 touches into 104 yards.

But he only had 11 touches, which is the thing.

His 31.4% share of the backfield touches was a season-low.

Gibbs lost a fumble inside the five-yard line on a reception right before halftime.

David Montgomery then out-touched Gibbs 9-to-3 in the second half.

Seemingly punished for that fumble, Gibbs posted a picture in front of a whiteboard with protection callouts, but this is still one of the NFL's most efficient backs per touch.

We will see if there is any added fallout from this.

You are going right back to him in lineups; the only decision is how you handle him in single-game DFS.

Gibbs is averaging 6.6 yards per touch.

No running back with as many touches as Gibbs has is averaging more yards per opportunity.

Green Bay has allowed 4.39 YPC to running backs (18th).

They have had issues with backs in the passing game, allowing 10.1 receiving points per game (26th) position.

The Detroit backs combined for 172 yards and a touchdown when these teams met in Week 9.

David Montgomery: Montgomery racked up a season-high 124 yards from scrimmage on 24 touches on Thanksgiving.

Whether it was Gibbs’ fumble before halftime or Dan Campbell‘s hint late last week that he wanted to get Montgomery going against his former team, Montgomery handled a season-high 68.6% of the backfield touches.

It was just the third time he has hit the 60% mark this season.

One of those weeks was in Week 9 when these teams last met.

That game was set up as a “Monty game” due to the game script and the sloppy field.

In that outing, he rushed 17 times for 73 yards, catching three passes for 23 yards.

Montgomery remains a touchdown-dependent RB2, but that latter data point is relevant here.

This is not only because we just stated that Green Bay has allowed many receiving points to backs, but Montgomery has also had an increased role in the passing game this season.

He has just one fewer reception (27) than Gibbs this season after catching 16 passes all of last season.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown collected 5-of-7 targets for 73 yards on Thanksgiving.

After reaching the end zone in eight straight games, he has been kept out of the paint over the past two games.

That has brought to light some of the lighter output the lead wideout has had this season, which he was covering somewhat with touchdowns.

St. Brown’s 68.3 yards per game and 10.8 yards per catch are his lowest rates since his rookie season.

He is averaging 7.7 targets per game after 10.3 per game in 2023 and 9.1 per game in 2022.

After 9.1% of his targets were 20 or more yards downfield last season, that rate is 4.3% this year.

St. Brown remains a fantasy WR1, and this passing still runs through him, even at a lighter degree than in previous seasons.

His 27.8% target share is good for WR4 on the season.

He still has those 9 touchdowns, tied for second at the position.

St. Brown caught all seven of his targets for 56 yards and a touchdown when these teams met in Week 9.

Jayden Reed (TRUST): Reed only had 3 catches for 24 yards on Thanksgiving night, but two of those receptions went for touchdowns.

He added a 23-yard run.

Although he did not have a lot of yardage on Thursday, Reed saw 21.4% of the team's targets with Romeo Doubs sidelined.

That rate was his highest in a game since Week 5, the last game that Doubs missed.

Doubs has already practiced this week, so he could return for this matchup.

With Doubs on the field, Reed has dipped to 16.7% of the team targets, but he has a matchup advantage here that makes him the most appealing of the Green Bay wideouts.

Reed plays 72.4% of his snaps in the slot where Detroit has been the most vulnerable.

Pair that with getting Carlton Davis back this week to push more action inside.

The Lions allow a league-high 7.1 receptions per game to slot receivers.

They allow 8.3 yards per target to slot receivers (20th) compared to 6.9 yards per target on the outside (3rd).

They allowed 64 yards and 2 touchdowns from the slot to Chicago slot receivers on Thanksgiving.

Reed has reached 30 yards receiving in just two of his past 7 games, but one of those was in Week 9 when he caught 5-of-6 targets for 113 yards against the Lions.

4 of those catches and 81 of those yards came from the slot.

Jameson Williams: Williams collected 5-of-7 targets for 28 yards on Thanksgiving.

While the yardage was lackluster, Williams had another solid workload.

Since returning from suspension, he has 20.8%, 19.4%, 21.2%, and 22.6% of the team targets.

We will gladly throw that rate of targets at the wall as a boom-or-bust WR2/WR3 when they are attached to a wideout with as much explosive ability as Williams has.

His 18.5 yards per catch rank fifth among wide receivers, and no wide receiver with as many receptions as Williams has posted more yards per catch.

Williams did not play in the first matchup between these teams, but we have circled him at home this season.

Williams has a 21.6% target share in his home games.

In five home games, he has caught 21-of-35 targets for 432 yards and 3 touchdowns.

In five road games, he has pulled in 13-of-20 targets for 198 yards and 1 touchdown.

Green Bay has been excellent at limiting downfield receivers.

They have allowed 28.6% (10-of-35) of deep targets to wide receivers to be completed, fifth in the league.

Packers WRs:  Romeo Doubs will miss another week in the concussion protocol, elevating Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks.

The Green Bay wideouts have been tough to determine and highly volatile, and Reed has the most significant individual signal for the abovementioned reasons.

Dontayvion Wicks has three weeks as a WR3 or better for fantasy.

Christian Watson has two.

Wicks has run a route on 77% of the dropbacks with Doubs off the field compared to 43.7% with Doubs on the field.

Watson was running ahead of Wicks before Doubs was sidelined.

In the three games prior, Watson was on the field for 67.7% of the dropbacks compared to 30.8% for Wicks.

Watson is still the best bang for your buck target from these wideouts for single-game DFS or chasing a big play from a WR4/FLEX spot in seasonal leagues.

Watson’s 2.17 yards per route run is second among the wide receivers behind Reed’s 2.45.

Tight End

Sam LaPorta: LaPorta only caught 3 passes for 6 yards on Thanksgiving, but he made them count, catching two in the end zone.

LaPorta now has 3 or fewer receptions in 8-of-11 games this season.

He has been targeted on 16.4% of his routes this season after a 23.8% rate as a rookie.

We are playing LaPorta as a touchdown-dependent TE1 based on his offensive attachment more than anything.

But if you are looking for a glass-half-full approach, he has at least 6 targets in four of his past five games after zero such games over his first six games.

LaPorta only caught 2-of-3 targets for 28 yards when these teams played in Week 9, but Green Bay has been a target for us this season regarding tight ends for fantasy.

Tight ends have 23.8% of the targets against the Packers (11th most).

The Packers have allowed 6.0 receptions per game to tight ends (28th), with 8.6 yards allowed per target (27th), an 81.8% catch rate (31st), and a 4.6% touchdown rate (21st).

Tucker Kraft: Kraft collected 6-of-7 targets for 78 yards on Thanksgiving.

Kraft has been at his best when Green Bay has been down a wideout.

Last week’s matchup aligned favorably on top of things.

Those elements are both compromised this week.

Kraft has been targeted on 13.6% of his routes with 13.0% of the team targets (1.17 yards per route) with Romeo Doubs on the field this season.

He has been targeted on 21.5% of his routes with 18.5% of the team targets (2.61 yards per route) with Doubs on the field.

Detroit has allowed a league-low 5.6 yards per target with a 1.5% touchdown rate (3rd) to tight ends.

Kraft caught 4-of-6 targets for 34 yards when these teams played in Week 9.

Kraft will still be on the field in a strong game environment, so I don’t blame anyone just throwing him out there in a week with six teams on bye and hoping to run into a touchdown or a big play.

He still leads the position with 9.6 yards after the catch per reception and has a red zone role.

Kraft has 25.5% of the team targets in the red zone, which is good for TE7 during the season.

More Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: