The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Vikings and Falcons.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spread | -5 | ||
| 20.25 | Implied Total | 25.25 | ||
| 21.4 | 19 | Points/Gm | 24.8 | 9 |
| 24.3 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 18.3 | 5 |
| 63.1 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 23 |
| 62.4 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 24 |
| 5.7 | 11 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 12 |
| 5.5 | 19 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 6 |
| 43.20% | 14 | Rush% | 45.70% | 13 |
| 56.80% | 19 | Pass% | 54.30% | 20 |
| 44.46% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 34.25% | 1 |
| 55.54% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 65.75% | 32 |
- Games in Minnesota are 5-1 toward the under this season, tied for the highest rate in the league.
- The Vikings are a league-best 5-0 this season when their opponent scores first.
- The Vikings have allowed 1.54 points per drive at home (3rd in the NFL).
- The Falcons have averaged 1.50 points per drive over their past four games (27th) after averaging 2.31 prior (10th).
- The Falcons have converted 29.6% (16-of-54) of their third downs over their past four games (29th in the league).
- Atlanta had converted 39.6% (36-of-91) of their third downs before then, 12th in the league.
- The Vikings have a 68.6% success rate defending rushing plays, the highest rate in the league.
- Atlanta has a 45.2% success rate on running back runs, 4th in the NFL.
- Atlanta is the only team leading their division with a negative point differential (-34).
- Minnesota averages a league-high 5.3 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense.
- Atlanta averages a league-low 2.2 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense.
- 79.3% (23-of-29) of the Minnesota touchdowns on offense have been passing, 2nd in the league.
- 78.3% (18-of-23) of the touchdowns allowed by the Minnesota defense have been via passing, 2nd in the league.
- 77.8% (21-of-27) of the touchdowns allowed by the Atlanta defense have been passing, 3rd in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Sam Darnold: Darnold kept up his consistently good season on Sunday.
Ending the week as QB12 (19.6 points), Darnold has logged three straight QB1 scoring weeks in four of his past five games.
He did brick against the Jaguars, but Darnold has been a steady asset all season.
That down week was only one of two weeks he finished in the back half of weekly scoring this season.
He has thrown multiple touchdowns in 9-of-12 games.
Darnold has produced 1.0 EPA or more on 29.6% of his dropbacks, the highest rate of all NFL passers.
In a week missing many viable pieces at the position, Darnold should be a floor-based QB1.
Atlanta is 31st in the league regarding pressure rate (27.5%).
From a clean pocket, Darnold has completed 72.3% of his passes for 8.5 Y/A and a 5.5% touchdown rate.
Atlanta does play a ton of zone coverage (77.8%), but that was also the case last week against Arizona and the Colts back in Week 9 (19 fantasy points).
Darnold has a 2.3% touchdown rate against zone coverage (18th) compared to an 8.5% rate against man coverage (12th), but he has averaged 8.0 Y/A against zone coverage, above the league’s base rate (7.7 Y/A).
The Falcons are also not a great zone coverage team.
They allow opposing passers 15.2 passing points per game (26th).
Kirk Cousins: Cousins had a disastrous outing on Sunday, throwing for 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 4 interceptions.
One of the interceptions was an egregiously late throw across the field that was returned for a touchdown.
Another came in the end zone on a wild throw into traffic, costing the team points in a close game.
Over his past three games, Cousins has thrown zero touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
I know we get intoxicated by #RevengeGame narratives, but this is a tough spot to buy into Cousins as more than an option in 2QB formats.
He only has one QB1 scoring week against a team other than the Buccaneers, and Minnesota represents a tough matchup for where his struggles have stemmed this season.
Cousins has 7.1 Y/A against the blitz (19th) with a 3.4% touchdown rate (30th).
The Vikings blitz on a league-high 37.1% of passing plays.
Minnesota also plays 78.7% zone coverage despite blitzing so much.
Against zone blitzes, Cousins averages 5.7 Y/A (29th) with a 0% touchdown rate.
Running Back
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More Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Bengals @ Cowboys -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
