The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Dolphins and Jets.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| NY Jets | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 19.25 | Implied Total | 25.75 | ||
| 18.8 | 26 | Points/Gm | 19.3 | 24 |
| 22.3 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 22.2 | 14 |
| 59.3 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 10 |
| 62.1 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.3 | 2 |
| 4.9 | 27 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 23 |
| 4.9 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 12 |
| 36.01% | 28 | Rush% | 43.14% | 15 |
| 63.99% | 5 | Pass% | 56.86% | 18 |
| 49.40% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 42.29% | 14 |
| 50.60% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 57.71% | 19 |
- The Jets are 1-5 against the point spread on the road, tied for the league's worst record.
- Since Week 8, 52.6% of the Jets' set of downs have reached third down, ahead of only the Panthers (54%) and Bears (56.8%) over that span.
- Since Tua Tagovailoa returned, 24.5% of the Miami plays have gained 10 or more yards (2nd in the league), but only 4.6% have gained 20 or more yards (27th).
- Miami averages 2.5 plays of 20 or more yards per game, ahead of only the Patriots (2.4 per game).
- Miami has a 37.9% success rate on rushing plays (23rd) after a 42.5% rate in 2023 (5th).
- The Jets have a 53.8% success rate defending passing plays over their past three games (22nd).
- 65.4% (17-of-26) of the touchdowns allowed by the Jets have been rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- Miami averages 2.7 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense, 29th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: It wasn’t pretty early on, but a negative game script and a jailbreak second half allowed Tagovailoa to post his third consecutive QB1 scoring week Thanksgiving night.
Tagovailoa was only 10-of-14 for 81 yards (5.8 Y/A) at the half in Green Bay but then went 18-of-21 for 214 yards (10.2 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in the second half to get there.
Tua has thrown the ball 36, 40, and 46 times in the past three games.
Miami’s lackluster ability to run the football has forced more passing volume.
They have been 6%, 10%, and 7% over pass rate expectations in those games.
Miami is another favorite at home with a moderate team total, conditions that have aided two of Tua’s past three QB1 scoring weeks.
A week with six teams on bye puts Tua in contention as a borderline QB1, but the matchup does not make things completely clear.
I prefer to use him as a floor-based QB2 and let an upside angle play out naturally over chasing it, but I understand rolling with him in 1QB leagues based on the state of the Miami run game and the team total.
Those games were at home against the Raiders and Patriots, two pass defenses that have struggled.
As much as the Jets have taken a step back defensively, they are still limiting passing points.
Since firing Robert Saleh, the Jets have allowed 7.8 yards per attempt (27th) but still have managed to limit passers to a 63% completion rate (8th) and a 3.5% touchdown rate (7th).
For all of their issues, the Jets have allowed the fewest passing points per game (10.8) to quarterbacks on the season.
They have allowed four QB1 scoring weeks this season (and only four games higher than QB20).
Those quarterbacks have all rushed for at least one touchdown in those games while Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson ran for two.
That is not Tua’s game.
They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns twice all season.
The Jets could be without Sauce Gardner this week, but this passing matchup will still require efficiency.
Tua was QB22 (12.9 points) and QB28 (7.8 points) in this matchup a year ago.
Aaron Rodgers: Closing last week as QB25 (14.0 points), Rodgers has one QB1 scoring week over his past nine games and three this season.
He is stuck as a floor-based QB2 for fantasy purposes.
Miami has allowed multiple touchdown passes in four of their past six games but has still limited passers to 6.9 Y/A (10th) over that stretch.
Running Back
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More Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Bengals @ Cowboys -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
