The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Rams and Bills.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | LA Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Spread | 4.5 | ||
| 26.75 | Implied Total | 22.25 | ||
| 29.6 | 2 | Points/Gm | 21.2 | 20 |
| 18.7 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 24.2 | 21 |
| 59.8 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 21 |
| 59.8 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 23 |
| 5.8 | 8 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 15 |
| 5.4 | 16 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 25 |
| 48.05% | 7 | Rush% | 40.33% | 25 |
| 51.95% | 26 | Pass% | 59.67% | 8 |
| 41.42% | 11 | Opp. Rush % | 49.34% | 30 |
| 58.58% | 22 | Opp. Pass % | 50.66% | 3 |
- The Rams have led for 17.2% of their offensive snaps, 28th in the league.
- Buffalo has trailed for a league-low 22.6% of their offensive snaps in the second half.
- 43.2% of the possessions against the Rams have reached the red zone or scored prior, 30th in the NFL.
- Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in six straight games, tying their longest streak as a franchise.
- The Bills have converted 50% of their third downs over that span, second in the NFL.
- The Rams have converted a league-low 25.7% (18-of-70) of their third downs over that span.
- Since Week 8 (when Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned), 22.3% of the Rams' plays have gained 10 or more yards (5th in the league) after a 16.1% rate prior (30th).
- Buffalo has allowed a league-low 5.7% of passing plays to gain 20 or more yards.
- The Rams have allowed 20 or more yards on 10.6% of opponent passing plays, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen and fantasy gamers with him on their roster had a blast on Sunday night.
He had his highest-scoring week since Week 3 (28.4 points), throwing 2 touchdowns, rushing for another, and getting credit for a receiving touchdown on a lateral at the goal line (giving him a passing and receiving touchdown on the same play).
Allen became the second player this season to get credited with a receiving touchdown without a reception the game, something that had not happened since 1984.
I am here for the renaissance that the lateral has had this season.
Gamers are here for Allen rushing for a touchdown in three straight games after only one rushing touchdown over his previous eight games.
Last year, Allen did not run much in the first half of the season and then turned it on over the back half of the year.
We were crediting that to Joe Brady, but maybe it is a calculated approach.
Maybe it is just luck influenced by the injuries among his pass catchers. Still, it is a welcome addition for fantasy gamers because Allen averages 224.3 passing yards per game, his fewest in a season since 2019.
Sunday night was his first week finishing higher than QB5 in weekly scoring since Week 3 and his first top-six scoring week since Week 7.
Of course, Allen has consistently held an extremely high floor over that stretch despite the lack of spike weeks, finishing no lower than QB13 since Week 5.
Allen is locked in QB1 for fantasy, but you already knew that.
This spot is interesting if going all in at cost in DFS.
Not only because last week was Allen’s first blow-up game since early in the year, but the Rams have allowed only one QB1 scorer since Week 3.
Over that span, they are seventh in the NFL in pressure rate (37.5%), which has steered their defensive performance.
When the Rams have pressured the opposing passer over that span, they have allowed a 46.2% completion rate (9th) and 5.4 yards per pass attempt (7th).
But when they have not pressured the quarterback, they have allowed a 73.8% completion rate (23rd) and 8.3 (Y/A).
The other crazy element in play here is that the Rams do not play much man coverage.
Over that run, they have played man coverage on 19.4% of their defensive snaps, which is 26th in the league.
I have mentioned this several times, but it is still out there.
Josh Allen does not have a touchdown pass against zone coverage this season.
According to TruMedia, Deshaun Watson is the only other quarterback this season who qualifies for the league’s passer rating without throwing a touchdown pass against zone coverage.
Matthew Stafford: Stafford and this passing game were not at their best on Sunday in New Orleans, but he did manage to throw multiple touchdown passes for the third straight game.
Stafford has done that in five of his past six games since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned to the field.
He has averaged 19.2 fantasy points per game since those wideouts returned to action, QB12.
Stafford is a higher-end QB2, but in a week with six byes, he can push that fringe-QB1 area in hopes that this game can shoot out.
The Bills have been a pass defense that has not allowed many spike weeks.
They have allowed one QB1 scoring week all season, which was to Lamar Jackson.
They have been more of a “bend but don’t break” pass defense, forcing many underneath throws away from wide receivers. This makes this matchup interesting since the Rams want to throw to their wide receivers.
The Bills have allowed a 68.5% completion rate (26th) but only 6.6 yards per pass attempt (third).
Wide receivers have 51.7% of the targets against Buffalo, the lowest rate in the league.
Stafford has thrown 76.1% of his passes to wide receivers, the highest rate in the league.
Running Back
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More Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Bengals @ Cowboys -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
