The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Bengals and Cowboys on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Dallas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Spread | 5.5 | ||
| 27.5 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 27.9 | 5 | Points/Gm | 20.7 | 21 |
| 28.3 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 28.3 | 29 |
| 61.7 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 65.3 | 4 |
| 65.3 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 17 |
| 5.8 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 25 |
| 5.7 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 29 |
| 35.68% | 29 | Rush% | 35.08% | 30 |
| 64.32% | 4 | Pass% | 64.92% | 3 |
| 45.21% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 48.86% | 29 |
| 54.79% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 51.14% | 4 |
- The Bengals are 5-1 against the spread on the road this season compared to 1-5 at home.
- The Cowboys have been outscored by 111 points at home this season, which is the worst margin in the league.
- Dallas has turned the ball over on a league-high 22.1% of their drives at home.
- 17.2% of Dallas' offensive plays have gained 10 or more yards, 31st in the league.
- The Cowboys have allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 76.9% (30-of-39) of their red zone possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bengals have scored a touchdown on 71.1% (27-of-38) of their red zone possessions, second in the NFL.
- The Bengals have allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 68.4% (26-of-38) of their red zone possessions, 30th in the league.
- The Cowboys have scored a touchdown on 43.8% (14-of-32) of their red zone possessions, second to last in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (TRUST): Burrow comes into the week leading the league with 30 passing touchdowns.
He has thrown 3 or more touchdowns in four straight games.
He also leads the NFL in passing yards per game (278.1).
The one good thing that this Dallas defense does is rush the passer.
They are fourth in the league in pressure rate (38.2%).
However, Burrow is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt (4th) and an 8.6% touchdown rate (2nd) against pressure this season.
When the Dallas defense does not get pressure, they have allowed a 73.6% completion rate (25th), a league-high 8.7 Y/A, and a 5.0% touchdown rate (24th).
Cooper Rush: Since taking over as the starter, Rush has been the QB33 (-2.0 points), QB18 (16.4 points), QB10 (18.0 points), and QB28 (11.8 points).
The Cowboys have been willing to throw the ball with Rush.
Since the Eagles game, they have thrown the ball 3% over expectations and 9% over expectations on first downs.
Rush is still only a matchup-based QB2.
The Bengals are 29th in passing points allowed per game (16.4).
To be fair to the Bengals, they have faced a tougher slate of passing games this season.
They have done a decent job against soft opponents.
They have allowed QB1 weeks to Lamar Jackson (x2), Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels, and Russell Wilson.
But they did limit production against the Raiders, Browns, Patriots, Panthers, and Giants.
Andy Dalton had the most fantasy points (15.7) against them in that sample, and he threw for 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
Rush should have plenty of passing volume, and he could run into a few scores to provide a usable QB2 floor.
Still, I would have a layer of caution when going all in on him based on the season-long metrics allowed by the Bengals.
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Running Back
Chase Brown (TRUST): After turning 15 touches into 100 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against Pittsburgh, Brown has ripped off four consecutive weeks as a top-10 scorer.
We did see Khalil Harbert touch the ball on Sunday, but it was only once.
Brown handled another 93.8% of the backfield touches, giving him 96-of-97 backfield touches over the past four games.
Dallas has played the run better the past two weeks against Washington (57 yards on 17 carries) and the Giants (55 yards on 16 carries), to keep us honest, but Brown's dual usage attached to a favorite with one of the highest team totals is too good to pass up as a front-end RB1 option.
Brown has 22 catches for 176 yards over his four games as the starter.
Rico Dowdle: Dowdle has posted back-to-back strong outings as the clear lead back in this offense.
He has handled 84.6% and 86.2% of the backfield touches, his highest rates of the season.
Dowdle has five games this year in which he has had 70% or more of the touches.
He has averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game in those games with four top-20 scoring weeks.
Dowdle did operate in positive game scripts the past two weeks against lighter run defenses, but he is a solid RB2 here.
The Cowboys are underdogs, which can reduce the volume from the previous two games, but the matchup isn’t daunting.
The Bengals are allowing 4.1 yards per carry to running backs (11th) and are seventh in receiving points allowed (7.0 per game) to backfields, but they have allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs (24th).
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase collected 6-of-9 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, his league-leading 13th touchdown.
He also leads the NFL in receiving yards (1,142).
Chase is a front-end WR1.
Dallas has only allowed three WR1 scoring weeks this season, but their top-down output against wide receivers is nothing to hide from.
They have allowed 8.2 yards per target (23rd) and 1.8 points per target (21st) to receivers.
Tee Higgins: Higgins pulled in 5-of-10 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, his third game in a row with a score.
Higgins has been targeted on a career-high 26.7% of his routes.
He has 28.7% of the Cincinnati targets in his active games with 2.19 yards per route run.
He has at least 27% of the team targets in six straight games.
Higgins should be handled as a fantasy WR1 alongside Chase.
Playing 81% of his snaps out wide, Dallas has allowed 9.0 yards per target to outside receivers (23rd).
CeeDee Lamb: It was a tough Thanksgiving for Lamb.
He caught 2-of-6 targets for 39 yards, dropping three of those opportunities.
Adding injury to insult, Lamb aggravated an AC joint injury he has been playing through.
That limited his playing time in the second half.
We will follow his status in practice this week to ensure he is good to go for Monday night.
Mike McCarthy said he was “hopeful” Lamb could return to full health.
If Lamb plays, there is an added layer of volatility for him and he has already been operating with a low ceiling.
Lamb has been a volume-based WR2 for fantasy.
He has been targeted on 29.5% of his routes with Cooper Rush in the game but is averaging only 1.51 yards per route run and 8.3 yards per catch.
The Bengals are in the middle of the pack against lead wideouts, allowing 14.2 points per game (15th) to those WR1 options, but they are allowing 9.3 yards per target (26th) to those receivers.
Cowboys WR: Brandin Cooks returned to the lineup on Thanksgiving, catching 3-of-7 targets for 16 yards and a touchdown.
Cooks only ran a route on 54.1% of the dropbacks, but he was targeted on a team-high 35%.
With Cooks returning, Jalen Tolbert (2-41-0) had his playing time reduced.
Tolbert ran a route on 75.7% of the dropbacks, his lowest rate in a game since Week 1.
KeVontae Turpin only ran 10 routes, but he continued to be electric when Dallas got him the ball on offense.
Turpin caught 4-of-5 targets for a team-high 53 yards.
He leads the team with 2.47 yards per route run on the season but has been on the field for 25.9% of the dropbacks.
Unless Lamb misses Monday night, these options are best left for single-game DFS outside the deepest formats.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson: Ferguson has missed the past two weeks with a concussion but is expected to play on Monday night.
Ferguson has only posted 0.98 yards per route run with Cooper Rush on the field with a paltry 2.9 air yards per target.
He is still without a touchdown this season.
While none of that is exciting, Ferguson does have some matchup-based appeal as a streamer, especially with the number of byes this week.
Ferguson has still been targeted on 17.8% of his routes with Rush in the game.
Tight ends have scored 22.9% of the fantasy points allowed by the Bengals, the third-highest share in the league.
They have allowed 8.4 yards per target (26th) and an 8.6% touchdown rate (29th) to the position.
Mike Gesicki: Gesicki caught 5 passes for 53 yards on Sunday, his best game this season in a week with Tee Higgins on the field.
That raised Gesicki’s target share to 6.9% this season with Higgins on the field, logging a 10.2% target rate per route.
He was only on the field for 54.5% of the dropbacks, leaving him as a thin streamer and single-game DFS player.
This is not a great matchup for volume, so you are hoping to land a splash play.
While we cannot expect volume, this matchup can aid efficient targets.
Tight ends have 18.1% of the targets against Dallas, the third-lowest rate in the league.
When tight ends have been targeted against Dallas, they have allowed 8.9 yards per target (30th) and a 10% touchdown rate (31st).
More Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Bengals @ Cowboys -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
