Bills vs. Cardinals Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Bills and Cardinals.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen (TRUST): Allen has been the QB3, QB1, QB2, and QB1 in points per game in each of the past four seasons.

While I would bet against Allen outright failing or bottoming out for fantasy, he may have more fragility in delivering that QB1 overall season than we are assuming based on the transition under Joe Brady and all of the changes that Buffalo has made to their receiving unit this offseason.

Before elevating Brady to offensive coordinator last season, Allen and the Bills were 5% over pass rate expectations on all downs and 11% on first downs.

After Brady took over, the Bills were 3% below pass rate expectations and 7% below expectations on first downs.

Over those nine games, Buffalo was 31st in the NFL dropback rate (52.4%) and 27th in the rate of yardage gained via passing (60.7%).

Before that, they were seventh in the NFL in dropback rate (63.2%), and 68.5% of their yardage came through the air (13th).

At the end of the season, Allen’s 14.8 passing points per game were his fewest in a season since 2019, the year before Buffalo added Stefon Diggs.

Under Brady, Allen averaged 13.9 passing points per game, which would have ranked 18th over the full season.

Allen had a career-high 3.1% interception rate while his 5.0% touchdown rate as a passer was his lowest in a season since 2019.

He survived overall because he added a career-high 18 rushing touchdowns.

11 of those came in those games under Brady, which covered up a lot of the limited passing production.

Allen ran much more under Brady.

He rushed 9.2 times for 47.1 yards per game over that stretch after averaging 4.8 rushes for 24.6 yards per game on the ground before that.

Allen comes with a higher rushing floor paired with touchdown equity on the ground, which can insulate some of the concerns we have with all of the moving parts among his pass catchers.

In 2023, Buffalo had five different wide receivers receive 20 or more targets on the season.

Four of them are no longer with the team.

Buffalo has young players in Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman that they hope will provide added upside, but they also have limited top-down success in the NFL or have yet to play a snap.

The Bills are outright fielding their weakest group of pass catchers around Allen since 2019.

While there is some big-picture concern for Allen, this is a great spot to open the year as large home favorites against a passive Arizona defense.

Arizona was 24th in the NFL in pressure rate last season (32.6% of dropbacks), and they were dead last in the league with a 16.2% blitz rate.

They produced a sack on just 6.1% of dropbacks (25th) and played man coverage on 16.3% of passing plays, which was 28th in the league.

As a result, they ranked 31st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.517), 31st in completion rate (68.5%), 27th in yards allowed per attempt (7.6 yards per attempt), and 31st in touchdown rate (6.3%) allowed.

Allen has averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game in weeks as a home favorite of six or more points.

Kyler Murray: Returning to the lineup in Week 10 last season after suffering an ACL injury in 2022, Murray was a mixed bag.

He completed 65.7% of his passes, which was his lowest rate since his rookie season in 2019.

His 6.7 yards per pass attempt did climb from a pedestrian 6.1 Y/A mark in 2022, but that still ranked 21st in the NFL for his return.

His 41.8% success rate and -0.01 EPA per dropback were the lowest rates of his career, coming in 21st and 18th in the league Weeks 10 through 18.

Murray once again struggled the most when tasked to throw downfield.

On throws 10 yards or further, Murray completed just 41.0% (32-of-78) of his throws. That ranked 26th in the league throughout his return.

This follows a 41.7% completion rate on those throws in 2022, which ranked 40th in the NFL among all passers with 100 or more pass attempts.

There are still plenty of excuses to make for Murray on the surface if you are looking for them.

Outside of coming back from a major injury, his 31.2% pressure rate was the second-highest of his career.

He only threw from a clean pocket on 62.5% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate of his career.

The top route runners on the team over his return were Trey McBride (85.7% of dropbacks), Greg Dortch (75.4%), and Rondale Moore (71.1%).

The only other pass catcher to run a route on half of Murray’s dropbacks was Michael Wilson (56.8%).

Despite returning from injury to one of the weakest surrounding sets of skill players and offensive line, Murray still averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game.

Murray posted six top-12 scoring weeks over his eight starts.

Since entering the NFL, Murray has finished as QB12, QB5, QB4, QB9, and QB10 in fantasy points per game.

Murray has come with some warts as a passer, but the best stretch of his early career came attached to an alpha wideout in DeAndre Hopkins.

With a healthy Hopkins over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Murray posted the best passing metrics (and subsequently the most fantasy points) of his career.

With the selection of Marvin Harrison Jr, Murray now has his best weapon and security blanket since that attachment to Hopkins.

A year removed from ACL surgery, Murray could also see another uptick in rushing output after averaging a career-low 5.5 rushes per game returning to the lineup in 2023.

Being large road underdogs is a potential raincloud here for Murray as a floor-based QB1, but the Buffalo defense has a lot in motion this offseason.

Matt Milano is out indefinitely with a bicep injury, long-time safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are no longer with the team, they could have a rotation at cornerback outside of Rasul Douglas, and they have a new, first-time defensive coordinator in Bobby Babich.

Running Back

More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: