Buccaneers vs. Commanders Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Commanders and Buccaneers.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels:  Daniels will make his true NFL debut after completing 12-of-15 passes for 123 yards in the preseason. 

There were some questions about the Washington offensive line and the impact we could see with Kliff Kingsbury working around that component.

In the limited sample size this preseason, Kingsbury’s focus was getting the ball out early.

93 different quarterbacks threw the ball double-digit times in the preseason. 

Daniels ranked 79th among that group with 5.9 air yards per attempt. 

But of that same group, he ranked 15th in yards per attempt (8.2 Y/A). 

Daniels was not sacked in the preseason on any of his 15 dropbacks, something that was a concern of his as a prospect.

He wasn’t even pressured, so we will see how much Washington calibrates Kingsbury’s horizontal raid to their potential issues on the line. 

We should see that tested by Todd Bowles, who we can assume will be aggressive with the rookie.

Bowles once again was at the front of the league in blitz rate, ranking 3rd in the NFL last season (41.1%).

Daniels had a 73.9% on-target throw rate against the blitz last year entering the NFL, which was second in the class. He was blitzed on 39.2% of his dropbacks, the 4th-highest rate in the class.

The thing with Bucs is that they did blitz a lot, but they only created pressure on 41.1% of their blitzes, which was 22nd in the NFL.

When the Bucs blitzed but failed to generate pressure, they allowed 8.2 Y/A (22nd). 

When their blitzes resulted in pressures, they allowed 5.7 Y/A (14th).

Kingsbury takes warranted flack for his first head coaching stint in the NFL, but his offenses regularly operated successfully for fantasy football.

By all indications from that stint with Arizona, Washington should play fast.

With Arizona from 2019-2022, Kingsbury’s offense ran a league-high 1,491 no-huddle plays. The next closest team ran 865 no-huddle snaps over that span.

The Cardinals ran off 26.9 seconds per play over Kingsbury’s tenure, the 2nd-fastest in the league over that stretch. 

The passing game averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt with the use of no-huddle (8th in the NFL) while only averaging 6.6 yards per attempt without (27th).

Even if Daniels does struggle to acclimate to the NFL as a passer, overall play volume and rushing acumen alone could be enough for him to register viable fantasy points as a floor-based QB1 with added upside, should he acclimate as a passer.

Baker Mayfield (TRUST): Mayfield set career highs in completion percentage (64.3%), passing yards (4,044), and passing touchdowns (28) last year.

As good as Mayfield was overall, he was still QB19 in fantasy points per game (16.1) with only three weeks as a top-10 scorer.

The loss of Dave Canales could have rippling effects here.

After Canales left Seattle, Geno Smith immediately took a step back.

The loss of Canales also keeps a streak Mayfield wishes were not true. 

Mayfield has had the same offensive coordinator in back-to-back seasons just once in his career. 

The positive news is that Mayfield did work with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen a couple of years ago when Coen was the coordinator for the Rams in 2022.

Mayfield made a pit stop there to close that season, starting four games, completing 63.6% of his passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

This is a good spot for Mayfield to open the season as a home favorite.

Washington was a defense we picked on regularly a year ago when it allowed a league-high 19.2 passing points per game.

All but two starting quarterbacks to face Washington last season scored more points against the Commanders than they averaged before the matchup.

Washington has cleared out its previous regime and has hired Dan Quinn as their head coach,.

Quinn’s resume deserves the benefit of the doubt on improving things in terms of pass defense.

We cannot take those numbers at face value, but this defense has a lot of question marks under 1st-year defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr.

Whitt served as the defensive backs coach under Quinn in Dallas the previous three seasons.

From a personnel stance, they have added Jeremy Chinn, Michael Davis, and rookie Mike Sainristil to play key snaps in the secondary while looking for more from Emmanuel Forbes in his second season.  

Overall, I am largely bullish on Mayfield’s Week 1 outlook as a strong option in 2QB formats and a borderline streamer in 1QB formats.

Running Back

More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: