The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Rams and Lions.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| LA Rams | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 23.75 | Implied Total | 27.25 | ||
| 23.7 | 9 | Points/Gm | 27.4 | 5 |
| 22.3 | 18 | Points All./Gm | 23.8 | 25 |
| 63.8 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 66.8 | 3 |
| 62.9 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.9 | 6 |
| 5.7 | 5 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 3 |
| 5.4 | 19 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 29 |
| 42.99% | 13 | Rush% | 43.45% | 12 |
| 57.01% | 20 | Pass% | 56.55% | 21 |
| 40.42% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 38.83% | 6 |
| 59.58% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 61.17% | 27 |
- Detroit has covered 68.6% (35-16) of their regular season games under Dan Campbell, the highest rate in the NFL over that span.
- The Rams were 2-7 as an underdog last season, 26th in the league.
- 75.0% of the Detroit scoring plays in 2023 were touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- The Rams averaged 3.3 sacks plus takeaways per game in 2023, 29th in the NFL.
- The Rams allowed 3.1 sacks plus turnovers per game on offense, second in the NFL.
- The Lions allowed 6.1 yards per play on third downs (30th) last season.
- Detroit was fifth in the NFL in success rate per opponent rushing play (64.5%) last season, but 27th in success rate per passing play (55.2%).
- The Lions allowed 4.4 plays of 20 or more yards per game in 2023, 29th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jared Goff (TRUST): The Lions got a great season out of Goff in 2023.
He completed 67.3% of his passes, the highest rate of his career.
He posted a 5.0% touchdown rate, his highest since 2018.
Goff was seventh in EPA per dropback (0.11) and seventh in success rate (45.9%) among passers last season.
The marriage of Goff and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is a good one.
He has been the QB10 and QB7 in overall scoring the past two seasons, closing those years as the QB15 and QB16 in points per game.
We have seen over Goff’s career that if there is insulation around him in terms of talent and a functional play-caller, he can succeed.
It is when things are forced to go off-road for Goff when his limitations prop up.
That is the biggest component for me when it comes to Goff.
You will always hear about his splits indoors and at home, but what has always mattered the most for Goff’s performance is disruption (or lack thereof).
The Rams have a lot of question marks on the defensive side of the ball entering 2024, most importantly generating a pass rush.
With Aaron Donald on their team last year, the Rams were 16th in the league in pressure rate (35.3%) and 23rd in sack rate (6.5%).
They are heavily counting on rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske to make a splash in the wake of Donald’s retirement.
When these teams played in the playoffs a year ago, Goff threw a season-high 10.3 yards per pass attempt while completing a season-high 81.5% of his throws.
With better touchdown fortune, he would have smashed for fantasy purposes.
When the Rams were unable to pressure Goff in that game, he was a perfect 19-of-19 passing for 12.7 Y/A.
Matthew Stafford (TRUST): Stafford ended the 2023 season finishing eighth in the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.11) and 13th in success rate (43.7%).
Over his final six games of the regular season, Stafford was 4th in the NFL with a 109.5 rating, ranking third over that span with a 7.1% touchdown rate and 5th in yards per pass attempt (8.0 Y/A).
When these teams played in the playoffs, Stafford was 25-of-36 for 367 yards and a pair of touchdowns (22.7 fantasy points).
Even believing that Detroit will improve its pass defense this season, Stafford is attached to the highest game total in Week 1 and playing indoors. If you cannot get excited to start him in these conditions, he shouldn’t be on your roster.
I do not expect Detroit to be better than 28th in the league in passing points allowed per attempt.
Adding Carlton Davis while using a first-round pick on Terrion Arnold should be upgrades, but we said the same thing entering last season when they added Emmanuel Moseley, Cameron Sutton, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, which fell apart (none of which are currently on the team).
Running Back
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More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs -- Free | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Eagles -- Free | Friday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Lions | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ 49ers -- Free | Monday Night Football |
