The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Jaguars and Dolphins.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 23.25 | Implied Total | 26.25 | ||
| 22.2 | 15 | Points/Gm | 27.9 | 3 |
| 21.8 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 23.2 | 22 |
| 65.5 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 23 |
| 63.4 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 12 |
| 5.2 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.4 | 2 |
| 5.4 | 21 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 9 |
| 40.66% | 24 | Rush% | 42.63% | 18 |
| 59.34% | 9 | Pass% | 57.37% | 15 |
| 39.05% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 41.25% | 12 |
| 60.95% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 58.75% | 21 |
- Miami is 17-4 (81.0%) under Mike McDaniel as a favorite (third in the NFL) and 3-11 (21.4) as an underdog (27th in the league).
- Miami is a league-best 34-18-2 against the point spread in early kickoffs at home since renovating their stadium in 2016. 10-3 ATS in those games under Mike McDaniel.
- Miami games averaged a league-high 51.1 combined points per game in 2023.
- The Dolphins have produced a first down or touchdown on 29.5% of their early down plays under Mike McDaniel, second in the NFL.
- Miami averaged 15.0 plays per game of 10 or more yards, most in the league.
- The Dolphins scored a league-high 19 offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone in 2023.
- 23.5% of the Jacksonville runs in 2023 failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- Miami allowed 1.29 points per drive to opponents at home last season (fourth in the league) as opposed to 2.53 points per drive on the road (30th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (TRUST): Playing the first full season of his career, Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards (4,624) in 2023.
In the past two seasons with Mike McDaniel (and Tyreek Hill), Tagovailoa has posted touchdown rates of 6.3% (1st in the league) and 5.2% (7th).
Tagovailoa has been a volatile fantasy option despite the strong counting stats overall.
Tagovailoa has seven weeks as a top-4 scorer over the past two seasons, but also just five other weeks as a QB1 scorer.
He has been the QB17 or lower in 16 of his 30 starts, including 11 as the QB20 or lower.
He has had eight games throwing three or more passing touchdowns but also 14 throwing one or fewer.
As a home favorite under McDaniel, Tua has had a stronger signal.
Miami is 7-1 in those games, with Tagovailoa completing 72.5% of his passes for 8.6 yards per pass attempt with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions.
He has averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game in those contests.
Jacksonville was a passive pass defense in 2023, playing zone coverage on 80.8% of passing plays (4th in the league).
They were 9th in the league in rate of Cover-3 (37.9%) on passing plays.
Tua has thrown for 8.4 Y/A against Cover-3 under McDaniel (8th) while completing 70.8% of his passes (8th).
As a whole, the Jaguars allowed a 4.4% touchdown rate (25th) while allowing 14.9 passing points per game (26th).
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence ended the 2023 season 22nd in the league in EPA per dropback (-0.03), completing 65.6% of his passes (14th) for 7.1 yards per pass attempt (16th) with a 3.7% touchdown rate (22nd) and a 2.5% interception rate (25th).
Lawrence had a career-high 12.4% inaccurate throw rate, which also coincided with a career-high 8.2 air yards per pass attempt.
For fantasy, Lawrence has opened his career as QB37, QB13, and QB17 in points per game.
We are still looking for Lawrence to make a complete jump that overlaps with his pedigree entering the NFL, but he will continue to have a long leash, giving him that opportunity.
There are moving parts here with this offense swapping out Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones for Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to go along with security blankets in Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.
Davis and Thomas Jr. could end up being an upgrade, but both come with some initial overlap where each wins and with weekly volatility.
The largest issue for Lawrence so far in his early career has been handling pressure.
Since entering the league in 2021, Lawrence has completed just 44.0% of his passes under pressure (34th in the league) for 5.4 yards per pass attempt (29th) and a 4.0% interception rate (33rd).
This game does have shootout appeal, so Lawrence is still in play as a boom-or-bust QB2 and large-field DFS option.
The Miami defense is a great unknown heading into 2024 after ranking 22nd in passing points allowed per game in 2023 (14.5).
They ranked 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.436).
New defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver has had one stint calling plays, serving as the coordinator for the 2020 Texans.
That defense was 31st in the league in efficiency.
Miami has a ton of moving parts personnel-wise.
They lost Christian Wilkins, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Xavien Howard.
Bradley Chubb is not ready to return from an ACL injury last season.
Jaelan Phillips is returning from an Achilles injury.
Jalen Ramsey may not play due to a hamstring injury.
They added Jordyn Brooks, Kendall Fuller, Calais Campbell, and Jordan Poyer.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich’s regular content, including positional rankings, DFS picks, and chats, click below to purchase our fantasy package
Learn More
More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs -- Free | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Eagles -- Free | Friday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Lions | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ 49ers -- Free | Monday Night Football |
