49ers vs. Jets Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the 49ers and Jets on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Brock Purdy: Purdy was among the league leaders in almost every passing metric in his first full season as a starter in 2023.

He led all passers in rating (113.0), yards per pass attempt (9.6), EPA per dropback (0.26), success rate (53.0%), and the rate of pass attempts to result in a first down or touchdown (43.2%).

After a 7.6% touchdown rate over his small sample size in 2022, he led the NFL with a 7.0% touchdown rate last season.

Even if you want to attribute environment to part of Purdy’s success, he still has been the best quarterback in this system since Kyle Shanahan got to San Francisco.

If you want to tear Purdy down for his environment, there is some small sample evidence of how much that has propped him up.

It has not been often, but when San Francisco has trailed, Purdy’s production has dropped off.

Purdy only has 137 dropbacks when trailing in the second half of his early NFL career.

But on those dropbacks, he has a 61.1% completion rate (29th), 3.2% touchdown rate (29th), 5.6% interception rate (37th and highest in the NFL), and a 75.3 rating (33rd).

When playing with a lead, Purdy has sported a 69.9% completion rate (third), 7.7% touchdown rate (second), 0.8% interception rate (seventh), and a league-high 122.3 rating.

The 49ers are once again projected to be one of the best teams in the NFL and play ahead more often than not.

Getting both Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk back before the season is huge.

Especially in the case of Williams.

Purdy took 89 dropbacks last season without Williams on the field.

He faced a 44.9% pressure rate on those dropbacks while having some poor turnover fortune. He posted only a 2.6% touchdown rate with a 5.2% interception rate on those dropbacks.

With Williams on the field, Purdy faced pressure on 39.8% of his dropbacks while posting a 6.7% touchdown rate and a 1.7% interception rate.

Getting everyone back for this matchup is key.

Not only is Robert Saleh familiar with what this offense wants to accomplish from his time working with Kyle Shanahan, but the Jets are also well-equipped to deal with it.

The Jets have allowed the fewest passing points per game for fantasy in each of the past two seasons.

There have been six games over the past two seasons in which an opposing quarterback scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Jets.

Three of those came from Josh Allen.

Even if you skate by with a solid game from Purdy here, the odds that he produces a week-winning outcome are lowered.

I would be willing to stream for him in this spot.

Purdy faced four teams in the top 10 in passing points allowed per game last season.

He scored 7.7, 26.1, 2.4, and 15.4 fantasy points in those games.

He lit up the Cowboys to keep us honest, but in totality, Purdy completed 57.9% of his passes for 7.3 Y/A with a 5.0% touchdown rate and a 4.1% interception rate in those games.

Against everyone else, he completed 69.5% of his passes for 9.6 Y/A with a 6.0% touchdown rate and a 2.4% interception rate.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers suffered an Achilles injury just four plays into last season, completely deflating all of the hype built up around the Jets.

He is 100% now but will turn 41 this December.

The last time we saw Rodgers on the field, he took a step backward in 2022 after the Packers traded away Davante Adams.

Due to his age and lack of rushing ability, it is hard to view Rodgers as more than a player to pick our spots with for fantasy.

This is a tougher one to predict a spike week for fantasy, leaving him as a QB2 option.

San Francisco was eighth in the NFL in passing points allowed last season (11.5 per game) and second in passing points allowed per attempt (0.316).

They will be without Dre Greenlaw and have a limited Talanoa Hufanga returning from an ACL injury.

The 49ers are elevating Nick Sorensen as defensive coordinator this season, who has been with the team the past two seasons as a defensive assistant.

This will be Sorensen’s first season calling defensive plays.

The good news is that the line should be better for the Jets entering this season.

Last season, the Jets’ most frequently used combination on the offensive line was on the field for just 143 plays.

That was 13.6% of their total snaps, the lowest rate in the NFL.

They opened this offseason by grabbing two potential starters from the Ravens in Morgan Moses and John Simpson and took the swing on Tyron Smith.

To add insurance for Smith missing time again, the Jets used their first-round pick on Olu Fashanu.

Alijah-Vera Tucker has been good through three NFL seasons, playing snaps everywhere but the center. In 2023, he was by far the highest-graded lineman on the team.

Unfortunately, he only played five games. Over the past two seasons, Vera-Tucker has only played in 12-of-34 games.

This unit has a low bar to clear in being better than what the team put on the field a year ago.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey gave fantasy gamers a scare this offseason by sitting out the entire preseason with a calf injury.

He is back practicing to open the week and is expected to be a full go on Monday night.

Last season, he was on the injury report heading into a Monday Night game and ended up playing 100% of the snaps, so we are handling things as if he will be ready to roll.

McCaffrey is approaching the age cliff at the position and does have a career history of soft-tissue injuries.

We can factor in his past as layering in a negative outcome, but he is still the best player at his position in a vacuum.

McCaffrey has always been an excellent fantasy asset, but that was accelerated to Pantheon levels when he was paired with Kyle Shanahan.

McCaffrey led the NFL in touches (339), rushing yards (1,459), yards from scrimmage (2,023), and tied for the league lead with 21 touchdowns last season.

McCaffrey has now played 33 games with the 49ers, scoring 39 touchdowns (with a passing touchdown) in those games.

He has played in just six games with the 49ers in which he has not scored a touchdown.

It was also important for McCaffrey that San Francisco is getting Trent Williams back.

With Williams on the field last season, McCaffrey averaged 5.4 yards per carry with a 15.2% rate of runs that gained 10 or more yards.

With Williams off the field, he rushed for 3.9 YPC with an explosive run on 8.6% of those attempts.

McCaffrey is a locked-in RB1 because of everything he can do, but the run game will be tested here.

The Jets allowed 4.0 YPC to running backs last season (10th) with a 66.4% success rate against those attempts (9th).

But the Jets were vulnerable to backs in the receiving game, allowing 10.8 receiving points per game to the position (27th).

Running backs accounted for a league-high 23.9% of the targets against the Jets last season.

The Jets played Cover-4 at the second-highest rate in the league last year.

McCaffrey was second on the 49ers with 21.4% of the targets against Cover-4.

Breece Hall: Returning from an ACL injury that cut his rookie season short in 2022, Hall still turned 299 touches into 1,585 yards from scrimmage and 9 touchdowns last season.

Only McCaffrey finished with more total yards than Hall among running backs despite a slow start in terms of playing time and operating in one of the league’s worst offensive climates.

Hall did not even play 50% of the offensive snaps in a game until Week 5.

While the top-down efficiency from his full campaign was lacking given the limitations that this offense faced through bottom-rung quarterback and offensive line play, Hall showcased his immense upside to close the season.

Over the final five weeks, Hall was a top-three scorer four times.

Entering 2024 fully removed from his ACL injury with Rodgers returning and significant pieces added to the offensive line, Hall is set up well to be the Jets’ version of McCaffrey.

Like CMC, Hall does too much of the football field to view as anything other than an RB1 for fantasy.

San Francisco was a volatile run defense last season.

They were 23rd in success rate against running back runs (61.0%) and allowed a first down or a touchdown on 24.6% of backfield runs (28th).

They were ninth in yards allowed before contact (1.17 per rush) but were 24th in yards allowed after contact per rush (3.09 yards).

The 49ers were also softer in the passing game against backs, allowing 9.3 receiving points per game to the position (21st).

Wide Receiver

Garrett Wilson: Wilson has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in his first two years while attached to the worst quarterback in the league.

Over the past two seasons, 16.5% of Wilson’s targets have been deemed inaccurate by TruMedia.

The only player with a higher rate of inaccurate targets over that period with as many overall targets as Wilson is Davante Adams at 17.2%.

Last season, Wilson caught 95 passes for 1,042 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The rest of the Jets wide receivers caught 57 passes for 654 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers is going on 41 this season and is returning from an Achilles injury, but the bar is set extremely low for Wilson to receive the best quarterback play of his early career.

Even looking at a lesser version of Rodgers in 2022 with a middling wide receiver unit, he was still above the league rate in inaccurate throws (10.3%).

If we are considering the entire package of age, target competition, and competent quarterback play, you can make the case for Wilson looking as good as any WR1 outside of CeeDee Lamb on paper.

Wilson was fourth among all wide receivers with 29.8% of his team targets and second in the league in share of his team’s air yards (45.0%).

Wilson had 47.3% of his team targets of 20-plus air yards (WR5) and 50.0% of his team end zone targets (WR2).

These are the areas where Rodgers can give Wilson the jolt we are chasing.

Through two NFL seasons, 38.1% of Wilson’s end zone targets have been inaccurate throws.

No player in the league has as many targets as Wilson and a higher rate of inaccurate throws into the end zone over that stretch.

34.1% of Wilson’s targets on deep passes have been inaccurate.

Only three other wide receivers have a worse rate of off-target deep balls with as many targets as Wilson.

While we are banking on Rodgers, there is good reason to lean into the potential of a spike outcome.

You can make a case that Wilson is the best raw talent entering the NFL that Rodgers has ever had.

The Packers never selected a wide receiver in the first round with Rodgers on the team.

Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson were second-round players.

The highest draft pick that Green Bay used on a wide receiver with Rodgers was Christian Watson at No. 34 in his final season with the team.

Watson had a stretch as a rookie where he was a WR1 for fantasy.

The 49ers ranked 20th in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 targets in 2023 (15.3).

Deebo Samuel (TRUST): Samuel had 97 touches for 1,117 yards from scrimmage to go along with 12 touchdowns in 2023.

As a receiver, Samuel averaged 14.9 yards per catch and 59.5 receiving yards per game, both of which were the second-highest totals of his career.

His 7 receiving touchdowns were a career high.

As a rusher, Samuel remained a unique chess piece at his position, rushing 37 times for 225 yards and another 5 touchdowns.

When Samuel has been available, he has been more of the driver of the San Francisco offense among the wide receivers since the 49ers can get him the ball in an easier fashion.

Over the past three seasons, Samuel has averaged a target on 23.8% of his routes with 2.12 yards per route run when Brandon Aiyuk has also been on the field.

With both Samuel and Aiyuk on the field at the same time in 2023, Samuel edged out Aiyuk 88-to-83 in targets before accounting for his rushing opportunities.

The Jets were second in the NFL in points allowed per target to wide receivers in 2023, ranking fourth in yards allowed per target (6.8) and allowing a league-low 1.9% touchdown rate to receivers.

The Jets are a rough matchup for any receiver, but the approach in coverage paired with Samuel’s usage is a larger signal for him being involved heavily in the opener than any other pass catcher.

The Jets were second in the NFL in rate of Cover-4.

Against Cover-4 last season, Samuel led the 49ers with 26.5% of the team targets and was targeted on a team-high 33.8% of his routes run.

He averaged 3.53 yards per route run against Cover-4, fifth in the NFL.

Brandon Aiyuk: After an offseason back-and-forth between attempting to get a contract extension or a trade, Aiyuk and the 49ers agreed to a new contract last week.

Aiyuk’s yardage has climbed from the season prior in each season, punctuated by him producing 1,342 yards in 2023 to go with 7 touchdowns.

In 2023, Aiyuk led all wide receivers with a first down or touchdown on 58.1% of his targets.

His 3.06 yards per route run was third at the position.

Since entering the league in 2020, Aiyuk has the highest EPA per target (0.43) among wide receivers to play multiple seasons.

The rub with Aiyuk from a fantasy stance stems from that reliance on efficiency over volume.

Without Samuel, Aiyuk is a fantasy WR1.

Over the past three seasons, Aiyuk has averaged a target on 19.2% of his routes with 1.97 yards per route run with Samuel on the field at the same time.

With Samuel off the field, Aiyuk has been targeted on 23.1% of his routes with 2.36 yards per route run.

In 2023, Aiyuk had a 21.2% target rate per route with Samuel on the field and a 25.8% rate with him off.

Because of the nature of this passing game, the core assets of the 49ers tend to cannibalize each other.

As hyper-efficient as Aiyuk has been, he still was the WR39 in targets per game in 2023 (6.6).

Aiyuk also does not play in the slot often or get as many “free squares” as Samuel does near the line of scrimmage, which is a potential hangup for him in this matchup.

The Jets allowed 7.6 yards per target to outside wide receivers in 2023, ninth in the league.

They allowed a league-low 1.5% touchdown rate to those wideouts.

Aiyuk lined up outside for 81.2% of snaps compared to a 64.1% rate for Samuel.

60% of Aiyuk’s targets came on throws 10 or more yards downfield compared to only 25.2% for Samuel.

The Jets allowed 43.0% of targets to wideouts 10 or more yards downfield to be completed (5th) while allowing a 2.0% touchdown rate (2nd) on those throws.

Given the matchup and his shortened window to ramp up since signing his contract, I am handling Aiyuk as a touchdown-dependent WR3 in the season opener.

Jets WRs: Mike Williams will play in the opener, but Robert Saleh has stated that the plan for Williams will be similar to the approach that the Jets took with Breece Hall returning from his ACL injury last season.

That leaves Williams as a touchdown-or-bust option for single-game DFS while opening the door for Allen Lazard and Xavier Gipson to play more snaps.

Neither Lazard nor Gipson played in the preseason while rookie Malachi Corley struggled to gain traction.

Corley ran 45 routes in the preseason, averaging 0.93 yards per route run.

No Jets wideout here is more than a single-game DFS dart throw.

Lazard caught 23 passes for 311 yards and a touchdown last season.

Tight End

George Kittle: Kittle set career highs with 15.7 yards per reception and 11.3 yards per target last season.

He went over 1,000 yards receiving for the first time since 2019 while tacking on 6 touchdowns.

He led all NFL tight ends in yards per route run (2.26).

Since he entered the league in 2017, Kittle has averaged the most yards per route run (2.33) among all NFL tight ends.

Thought of as a player limited by his blocking ability, Kittle was on a pass route for 83.4% of the San Francisco dropbacks, which was third among all tight ends.

Kittle will be over 30 this season, but he is still capable of huge weeks, which matters at a position that comes with a lower bar than the other fantasy positions.

In short, Kittle’s ceiling impacts more winning weeks than his low-scoring weeks.

In 2023, he matched Sam LaPorta with three weeks leading the position in scoring.

What keeps Kittle from regularly competing to be the TE1 overall for a complete season is that the 49ers pass catchers all eat at each other’s production.

San Francisco was 32nd in the NFL in dropbacks per game in 2023 (33.0).

They ranked 28th in 2022 (32.1) and 32nd in 2021 (32.1).

Despite leading the position in yards per route run in 2023, Kittle ranked 13th in target rate per route run (20.0%).

Over the past two seasons, Kittle has run 557 pass routes with both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk on the field.

On those plays, Kittle has been targeted on 17.2% of his routes and has just 15.7% of the team targets (1.64 yards per route run).

Kittle has run 336 routes with either one of those wide receivers off the field, receiving a target on 23.8% of those routes with 21.9% of the team targets (2.59 yards per route run).

We talked about the Jets running a high amount of Cover-4.

Should that be the case again, Kittle was targeted on just 15.1% of his routes run with 0.99 yards per route against Cover-4.

The Jets allowed only 6.8 yards per target to tight ends (7th), but they allowed a 6.6% touchdown rate to the position (27th) to keep the lights on for Kittle as a boom-or-bust TE1.

Tyler Conklin: Conklin was third on the Jets last season in targets (87) and receptions (61) while finishing second on the team in receiving yards (621).

Over the past three seasons, Conklin is tied for eighth among all tight ends in receptions and is 11th in receiving yards.

The hope for him is that the return of Aaron Rodgers will give him a Robert Tonyan-esque touchdown season in his range of outcomes, but he opens the season with a rough draw to handle him as more than TE2 we hope finds the end zone.

The 49ers have been a long-running strong defense against tight ends.

They will be without Dre Greenlaw to crack open the window, but they still have Fred Warner in the middle of the field.

Since drafting Warner in 2018, the 49ers have ranked in the top eight in yards allowed per target to tight ends every season.

In 2023, San Francisco allowed 6.6 yards per target to tight ends (5th) and a 2.4% touchdown rate (3rd) to the position.

More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: