The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Panthers and Saints.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Carolina | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 13.9 | 31 | Points/Gm | 23.6 | 10 |
| 24.5 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 19.2 | 6 |
| 64.5 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 65.9 | 5 |
| 59.8 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.0 | 7 |
| 4.1 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 20 |
| 4.9 | 6 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 17 |
| 40.60% | 25 | Rush% | 42.82% | 16 |
| 59.40% | 8 | Pass% | 57.18% | 17 |
| 50.00% | 32 | Opp. Rush % | 43.83% | 22 |
| 50.00% | 1 | Opp. Pass % | 56.17% | 11 |
- The Saints have won five consecutive season openers, the longest active Week 1 winning streak in the league.
- The Panthers scored just 2 offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone in 2023, the fewest in the NFL.
- Carolina’s average length of touchdown in 2023 was just 8.3 yards, the lowest in the NFL.
- New Orleans was the only team in the NFL last season that did not have a run of 20 or more yards from a running back.
- The Panthers had a 29.3% pressure rate in 2023, the lowest rate in the league.
- Carolina averaged 2.2 sacks plus takeaways per game in 2023, the fewest in the NFL.
- The Panthers led for only 8.8% of their offensive snaps in 2023, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Derek Carr: In his first year with the Saints, Carr completed 68.4% of his passes (sixth in the league) for 7.1 yards per pass attempt (18th) with 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.
His 1.5% interception rate was his lowest in a season since 2016.
He finished 14th in touchdown rate (4.6%), 17th in EPA per dropback (0.04), and 16th in success rate (43.4%).
If you are looking for some pros for Carr as a QB2 with upside this season, an offensive coaching change should impact this offense positively overall.
The transition to Klint Kubiak will be a welcome addition compared to the approach the New Orleans passing game took in 2023, which had next-to-zero easy buttons for a passer.
In 2023, the Saints were dead last in the NFL in the use of play action (14.4%) and pre-snap motion (22.8%).
Serving as passing coordinator in San Francisco last season, we are hoping Kubiak brings over more of what Kyle Shanahan does offensively.
San Francisco was second in the NFL in use of pre-snap motion (67.3%) and 16th in play action rate (23.2%).
Kubiak only has one year of calling plays in the NFL, back in 2021 with the Vikings.
In that season, Kubiak’s offense was 12th in the NFL in pre-snap motion (43.4%) and 18th in the use of play action (25.5%). Even if those held up for 2024, it would be a huge positive shift compared to the 2023 rates for New Orleans.
Carr only took 15 dropbacks this preseason.
The Saints ran play-action on just 13.3% of those but used pre-snap motion on 60.0%.
Overall, this preseason, the Saints used pre-snap motion on 38.1% of plays, which was 12th in the league.
This Carolina defense is not scary, but we will need those changes in this offense to make an immediate impact for Carr as a QB2.
Despite the Carolina defense being exploitable, it did not help Carr last season.
He finished as QB34 (6.7 points) and QB21 (10.8 points) in his two starts against the Panthers last season.
Dave Canales retained Ejiro Evero as defensive coordinator in Carolina.
Carolina was fifth in the NFL in rate of blitzing (32.9% of dropbacks) but was dead last in the league in pressure rate (29.3%) last season.
They blitzed Carr on 36.8% of his dropbacks.
When they blitzed Carr, he completed 72.7% of his passes (16-of-22) for 8.6 yards per attempt with 2 touchdowns.
When they did not blitz Carr, he completed just 57.5% (23-of-40) of his passes for 4.0 yards per attempt with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Bryce Young: 2023 was nothing short of a disaster for Young and the Panthers.
Young finished 32nd in the league in passer rating (73.7).
He was dead last among qualifying passers with 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
His 2.1% touchdown rate was ahead of only Kenny Pickett (1.9%) among qualifying passers.
He completed a league-low 39.3% of his passes on throws 10 yards or further downfield.
He was sacked on a league-high 26.8% of his pressures.
TruMedia only has four years of throwing accuracy data, but Young’s 15.2% inaccurate throw rate is ahead of Zach Wilson (15.4%) and Justin Fields (17.0%) among rookie passers over that span.
For fantasy, Young had only one game all season finishing a week higher than QB16.
He had 10 weeks as the QB25 or lower in weekly scoring.
The bottom line is that Young has to play better in his second season than he did as a rookie, but considering his offensive line, surrounding pass catchers, his year-one coaching staff getting fired during the season, and having an early-season ankle injury, there is no shortage of excuse-making options on the table for Young if you are looking for them.
The Panthers are committed to Young short-term, and Carolina has done what they could at the start of this offseason in terms of adding bodies to the offensive line and acquiring a viable pass catcher.
At the end of the season, Carolina had five different combinations across their line on the field for over 100 snaps, but the most any of those combinations played together was 189 snaps.
The team just could not stay healthy on the interior.
No guard on the roster appeared in more than 10 games last season.
Carolina immediately went out and splurged in that area to open free agency, adding both Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt to huge contracts.
Carolina allowed DJ Chark to walk in free agency while adding Diontae Johnson as a clear upgrade and lead target alongside slot man Adam Thielen.
Their best acquisition under the premise of turning things around immediately for Young comes from the hire of Canales.
Canales has been attached to the resurrection of both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons when he was the Seattle quarterbacks coach in 2022 and the offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay last season.
We need to see things spill into the regular season against starting defenses, but Young did look comfortable this preseason when he was 6-of-8 for 8.8 yards per attempt and a touchdown in his lone appearance.
The lights are still on for Young in his second season, but we are still treating him as a QB2 option to open the year.
New Orleans was 10th in passing points allowed per pass attempt (0.371) in 2023 while ranking ninth in passing points allowed per game (12.1).
Running Back
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More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs -- Free | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Eagles -- Free | Friday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Lions | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ 49ers -- Free | Monday Night Football |
