The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Colts and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 22.7 | 13 | Points/Gm | 23.3 | 11 |
| 21.1 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 24.4 | 28 |
| 61.8 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 64.4 | 12 |
| 64.0 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.9 | 31 |
| 5.4 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 15 |
| 5.2 | 13 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 15 |
| 40.89% | 21 | Rush% | 43.78% | 11 |
| 59.11% | 12 | Pass% | 56.22% | 22 |
| 43.59% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 45.56% | 27 |
| 56.41% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 54.44% | 6 |
- The Colts have not won a season opener since the 2013 season (0-9-1), the longest active winless streak in Week 1 in the league.
- The Colts were 6-0 as a favorite last season and 3-8 as an underdog.
- Indianapolis allowed 4.6 scoring plays per game last season, 31st in the NFL.
- Houston averaged 2.8 more yards per passing play than their opponent last season, third in the league.
- The Texans were 29th in success rate per rushing play (35.1%) in 2023 compared to 12th per passing play (43.8%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud (TRUST): Not only did Stroud have a great season in the context of rookie quarterbacks, but he had a great season in the context of all quarterbacks in the league in 2023.
Stroud threw for 8.2 yards per pass attempt (third in the NFL) with a league-best 4.6 TD-to-INT ratio.
He finished sixth in the league in EPA per dropback (0.11) and ninth in success rate (45.5%).
Layering in all of the injuries that Houston dealt with on their offensive line and at wide receiver, the 2023 season for Stroud was nothing short of a major win for the organization.
Houston’s most frequently used offensive line combination was on the field for 20.2% of their offensive snaps, which was 28th in the league.
Both Nico Collins and Tank Dell were on the field together for just 34.4% of Stroud’s dropbacks on the season.
The team should naturally run into better fortune keeping their line intact this season while they have given Stroud an added weapon in Stefon Diggs while also adding Joe Mixon to this offense.
Stroud is a solid QB1 in a game that has plenty of shootout appeal.
In two starts against the Colts last season, Stroud was the QB11 (21.5 points) and QB7 (20.6 points).
He completed 68.5% of his passes for 8.9 yards per pass attempt against the Colts, throwing 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
The Colts were 26th in pressure rate (32.4%) last season, and it was a big factor in their lack of success versus Stroud.
On 29 dropbacks under pressure against the Colts, Stroud was only 9-of-19 (47.4%). On 54 dropbacks without pressure, he connected on 41-of-54 (75.9%) of his throws for 9.0 yards per attempt.
Anthony Richardson: We only got to see Richardson play in four games for the Colts last season, two of which he was forced to leave early.
Richardson suffered a concussion in Week 2 that forced him to miss Week 3 before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5.
Losing nearly a complete season and suffering an injury to his throwing shoulder was a large blow for a passer that needed development.
On his small sample on the field, Richardson did provide plenty of upside but also showcased why losing a season’s worth of passing reps was a big deal.
Entering the league with one of the worst passing profiles for a prospect ever, Richardson completed 7.7% fewer of his passes than his expected rate, which was the lowest in the league at the time of his injury.
His 59.5% completion rate before injury was 32nd out of 33 quarterbacks at the time.
He was 21st in the league over that small sample in yards per pass attempt (6.9).
That said, we also saw the electricity that Richardson provides as an athlete.
In his two full games played, Richardson was the QB4 and QB2 in weekly scoring.
In Week 2 against the Texans, Richardson played only 18 snaps and still scored 17.7 standard fantasy points.
Richardson averaged 0.73 fantasy points per dropback.
Josh Allen led the league over a full season with 0.63 points per dropback.
Richardson averaged 9.4 rushing points per game, even with his two shortened games mixed in.
51.7% of his fantasy points came via rushing.
Richardson’s infrastructure gives him added QB1 upside to go along with his rushing ability.
With Richardson on the field, the Colts used no-huddle on 23.4% of their plays compared to a 17.1% rate without him.
They averaged 6.4 yards per play on those snaps, which would have led the NFL over the season on no-huddle snaps.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich’s regular content, including positional rankings, DFS picks, and chats, click below to purchase our fantasy package
Learn More
More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs -- Free | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Eagles -- Free | Friday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Lions | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ 49ers -- Free | Monday Night Football |
