The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Bears and Titans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 17.9 | 27 | Points/Gm | 21.2 | 19 |
| 21.6 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 22.3 | 19 |
| 58.9 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 9 |
| 64.5 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.9 | 5 |
| 4.9 | 26 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 24 |
| 5.2 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 18 |
| 44.31% | 9 | Rush% | 48.68% | 2 |
| 55.69% | 24 | Pass% | 51.32% | 31 |
| 43.80% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 37.49% | 3 |
| 56.20% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 62.51% | 30 |
- 56.3% of the yardage gained by Chicago in 2023 was via passing, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Bears had a 27.4% pressure rate when they did not blitz last season, the lowest rate in the league.
- Tennessee allowed 4.5 scoring plays per game (28th), but 39.5% (30-of-76) of the scoring plays allowed were touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
- 79.5% (31-of-39) of the touchdowns allowed by Chicago in 2023 were via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears (44.3%) and Titans (50.3%) were the two bottom teams in clean pocket throw rate in 2023.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Caleb Williams: Williams will make his first official start after being the No. 1 overall pick in the draft this season.
On 23 preseason dropbacks, Williams was only 10-of-20 passing, but he did average 8.5 yards per pass attempt and did not throw an interception while taking 1 sack.
I am opening things up with Williams as a higher-end QB2 with upside for fantasy.
The only real questions are going all in on a first-time starter in his debut and believing in Shane Waldron.
Since 2010, No. 1 Overall draft picks at quarterback are 0-9-1 (1-8-1 ATS) in their first career start.
0-6-1 (1-5-1 ATS) in Week 1.
The last No. 1 overall pick at quarterback to win outright in Week 1 was David Carr in 2002.
That said, only two of those players were favorites (both did lose).
Going to Chicago, Williams is in a more favorable position than many previous quarterbacks selected at No. 1 overall given how Chicago landed the top pick after trading out a year ago.
Williams will start his career throwing to D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze.
This Tennessee defense is largely new this year.
New first-time defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson comes over from being the defensive backs coach with the Ravens last season.
The Titans have a host of new starters on defense, adding L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie at cornerback, Quandre Diggs at safety, linebackers Kenneth Murray and Ernest Jones, and Sebastian Joseph-Day and T’Vondre Sweat on the defensive line.
Will Levis: I wrote a lot about the offense that Levis was in as a rookie and the transition we could expect this year with Tennessee moving on from Derrick Henry while adding Brian Callahan, Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd, and JC Latham this offseason.
It was only a small sample and was preseason action, but we did see those changes implemented this summer.
In the preseason, Levis was 11-of-13 for 11.8 yards per pass attempt, but it was how this offense operated that was the story.
No quarterback averaged more air yards per attempt than Levis last season.
His average throw was 10.5 yards downfield.
The average among passers that qualified for league passer rating was 7.7 yards downfield.
22.4% of Levis’s throws were 20 yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league.
The average was 11.7%, and the next closest passer was at 14.6%.
This preseason, Levis only averaged 5.6 air yards per throw and threw 30.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.
From 2019-2023 with the Bengals, Callahan’s offense threw the ball 3% over expectations, and Joe Burrow missed the crux of two seasons over that span.
This is a system that will push to get the ball out of Levis’ hands earlier.
We are still handling Levis as a QB2 attached to a road underdog with a low team total, but I do want to keep tabs on him early to determine if he has more upside potential in his second season.
Chicago also gets respect defensively, so we may have something to stock if Levis can hit here.
The Bears allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt last season (12th) while allowing one QB1 scoring week over their final eight games of the year.
Running Back
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More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs -- Free | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Eagles -- Free | Friday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Lions | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ 49ers -- Free | Monday Night Football |
