Seahawks vs. Broncos Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Broncos and Seahawks.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Geno Smith (TRUST): After a career breakout in 2022, Smith took a step back last season. 

His completion rate went from 69.8% down to 64.7%. 

His touchdown rate went from 5.2% down to 4.0%.

His yards per pass attempt went from 7.5 Y/A down to 7.3 Y/A.

Smith ended the season 16th among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.06).

He went from averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game down to 15.1.

The largest issue that Smith and Seattle had last season was added pressure and handling that added heat.

Smith was under pressure on 40.8% of his dropbacks last season (28th in the league) after a 34.2% rate in 2022 (21st).

When pressured last season, Smith averaged only 5.3 yards per pass attempt (25th), while completing 50.0% of his passes (12th). 

When Smith was kept clean, he averaged 8.4 Y/A (fifth) and completed 73.0% of his passes (11th).

Smith averaged 7.3 air yards per pass attempt from a clean pocket (12th), while averaging a league-low 6.4 air yards per throw when pressured. 

By the end of the season, Seattle’s most frequently used combination on the line for the year was on the field for just 21.4% of their offensive snaps, which was 26th in the league.

The tackle spots just wrecked this line last season.

In their second season, tackle Charles Cross missed three games while Abraham Lucas only appeared in six. 

Seattle will look for better health from those tackles in 2024, but it will also be replacing both offensive guards from a year ago to further add to the question marks this line has this season paired with a quarterback that needs pristine pass protection.

Top-down, this offensive line still has question marks.

The good news here is that even if Ryan Grubb does not work his system around this potential limitation, Denver was 21st in pressure rate (34.1%) a year ago.

The Broncos attempted to generate pressure, blitzing on 33.3% of dropbacks, which was 4th in the NFL.

But they created pressure on just 36.4% of their blitzes, 27th in the league.

Vance Joseph’s defense ranked 29th in the NFL in passing points allowed per game (15.7) and 29th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.470).

Circling back to Grubb. 

We are going to get early cards flipped over here in his first game as an NFL playcaller.

We only received a tiny sample of five plays this summer with Geno Smith and the first-team offense on the field in the preseason, but Seattle had a 100.0% dropback rate and used 11 personnel on all of those snaps.

Seattle used pre-snap motion on 60% of those dropbacks and 40% were play action.

As one of the larger home favorites of Week 1, Smith is a streaming option for needy rosters, as well as a DFS, pivot away from Sam Darnold for those looking to pay down at the position. 

Bo Nix: Nix won the starting job this preseason. 

On 34 preseason dropbacks, Nix completed 23-of-30 passes (76.7%) for 205 yards (6.8 Y/A) with two touchdowns. 

More importantly, he threw zero interceptions and took zero sacks.

When Denver took a sack on a drive last season, they were 26th in points per drive (0.70), but 15th in points per drive without a sack (2.16).

Even if this offense still has work left to be done in terms of adding talent, Nix should keep this offense on schedule more in 2024.

The unique circumstances through COVID and the new transfer rules allowed Nix to develop and max out his collegiate career with a massive season at Oregon.

Nix is a rare five-year starter, appearing in 61 games.

He has enough ability to escape pressure and create with his legs. 

Nix rushed for 38 touchdowns over his five seasons, averaging 26.4 yards on the ground per game for his career.

For starting projection, Nix is going to have initial value in SuperFLEX leagues.

In 1QB formats, it is hard to get overly aggressive here in his first career start as a road underdog. 

Seattle was one of the largest disappointments on defense a year ago, but Mike Macdonald inherits a group with enough talent to buy a turnaround. 

Over his two seasons calling the defense in Baltimore, the Ravens were fourth in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.5 Y/A) and third in touchdown passes allowed (1.1 per game) under Macdonald.

The Ravens only allowed five top-10 scoring weeks to an opposing quarterback under Macdonald.

Macdonald may have growing pains in reaching for those numbers, but there will be significant changes in approach to what Seattle did defensively a year ago.

In 2023, Seattle was 31st in the league in the use of man coverage on passing snaps (13.1%) while the league average was 24.7%.

Baltimore was at 26.0%.

Seattle’s cornerbacks are arguably their largest defensive strength with Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen.

Running Back

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