The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Steelers and Falcons.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 22.75 | ||
| 17.8 | 28 | Points/Gm | 18.9 | 26 |
| 19.7 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 21.9 | 17 |
| 60.7 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 13 |
| 63.3 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 22 |
| 5 | 22 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 16 |
| 5.4 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 5 | 7 |
| 46.70% | 5 | Rush% | 47.80% | 4 |
| 53.30% | 28 | Pass% | 52.20% | 29 |
| 42.81% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 45.78% | 28 |
| 57.19% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 54.22% | 5 |
- 55.2% (16-of-29) of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns in 2023 were rushing, the highest rate in the NFL.
- The Falcons scored a touchdown on a league-low 48.2% (13-of-27) of their goal-to-go drives in 2023.
- Atlanta was a league-worst 5-12 (29.4%) against the spread in 2023.
- The Falcons (59.9%) and Steelers (59.2%) were sixth and seventh in success rate against the pass last season.
- 65.8% of Pittsburgh’s set of downs resulted in a new set of downs or a touchdown in 2023, 27th in the league.
- The Falcons were 25th at 67.3%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins: Cousins is 36 and is coming off an Achilles injury on his plant leg.
Cousins comes with some risk due to age and a return from a significant injury, but there is also no question that Cousins is a significant upgrade over what Atlanta received from their quarterback rooms over the previous three seasons.
Before his injury last season, Cousins was completing 69.5% of his passes, on pace to be his best season since 2018.
While we had an incomplete season, he was the QB7 in points per game, tracking to be his best season in the context of the league since joining Minnesota.
Now, with the addition of Cousins, the Falcons will transition from Arthur Smith to an offense led by Zac Robinson.
Robinson has been a part of the Rams coaching staff since 2019, where Cousins’ previous head coach Kevin O’Connell came from before taking over Minnesota’s offense.
As far as transitions into new systems go, this one should be clean.
Over the past three seasons under Smith, Atlanta had one of the least dynamic offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons ranked 30th in the NFL in dropback rate (55.1%) over those seasons.
They ranked dead last in the NFL in rate of passing plays in 11 personnel at 30.1%. The league average over that span was 70.8%. The next closest team to them was at 47.4%.
The entire coaching tree from Sean McVay has deployed more 3WR sets compared to the league average over that span, so this should be a huge offensive change for the passing game in Atlanta compared to recent seasons.
This preseason, the Falcons used 11 personnel on a league-high 97.2% of their plays.
We did not see Cousins this preseason, so this will be his first game action with the new skill players he has to work with.
Without a rushing component to his game, Cousins is a QB2 to kick things off.
Pittsburgh was middle of the pack as a pass defense last season, allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt (19th), 0.399 fantasy points per pass attempt (17th), and 13.4 passing points per game (16th).
Justin Fields: Fields is now expected to start on Sunday after Russell Wilson was limited in practice to close the week due to a calf injury.
Fields is still only 26 years old and carries as much athleticism as any quarterback in the league.
Fields has rushed for 55.5 yards per game since entering the league, which is just short of Lamar Jackson (58.8 yards) over that span.
What hurt Fields was his development as a passer and failure to get away from negative plays.
Since entering the NFL, Fields has taken a league-high 135 sacks.
A league-high 28.3% of his pressures have resulted in sacks while the NFL average over that span is 20.0%.
Over the past three seasons, Fields has averaged a league-high 3.02 seconds per time to release the football while a league-low 34.1% of his throws in the NFL have come out before 2.5 seconds.
The NFL averages over that span are 2.65 seconds to throw with 46.9% of all passes coming out before 2.5 seconds.
In a way, the greatest strength for Fields also contributes to his largest weakness.
Over the past three seasons, Fields is 35th in the NFL in expected points lost on sacks, interceptions, and fumbles out of 38 quarterbacks.
One of the players below him is Russell Wilson.
But no matter when Fields suits up, he is immediately a viable candidate for fantasy points, finishing as the QB6 and QB13 in points per game the past two seasons.
In 2023, Fields was fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback.
If Fields is starting, he is in play a viable streamer due to rushing while also offering a cheap option in DFS.
Atlanta hired Jimmy Lake as their new defensive coordinator.
This will be the first time that Lake has called defensive plays in the NFL.
The Falcons were 18th in passing points allowed per game in 2023 (13.6).
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich’s regular content, including positional rankings, DFS picks, and chats, click below to purchase our fantasy package
Learn More
More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs -- Free | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Eagles -- Free | Friday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Lions | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ 49ers -- Free | Monday Night Football |
