The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Raiders and Chargers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Las Vegas | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 18.75 | Implied Total | 21.75 | ||
| 19.5 | 23 | Points/Gm | 20.4 | 21 |
| 19.5 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 23.4 | 23 |
| 59.4 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 7 |
| 64.1 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 29 |
| 4.9 | 27 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 21 |
| 5.2 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 26 |
| 40.89% | 20 | Rush% | 38.97% | 27 |
| 59.11% | 13 | Pass% | 61.03% | 6 |
| 43.99% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 41.96% | 13 |
| 56.01% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 58.04% | 20 |
- The Raiders averaged 1.5 runs of 10 or more yards per game, the fewest in the league.
- Las Vegas allowed 5.0 yards per play (sixth in the league) on early downs last season but allowed 5.9 yards per play on third downs (26th).
- The Chargers allowed 6.3 yards per play on first downs in 2023, second to last in the NFL.
- Jim Harbaugh was 4-0 straight up and against the spread in Week 1 during his first head coaching stint in the NFL.
- In their games under Antonio Pierce, the Raiders posted a 47.9% dropback rate when leading on the scoreboard, which was 29th in the league.
- When trailing, that rate spiked up to 64.6%, which was 18th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: Herbert sat out most of the preseason dealing with plantar fascia, but he was practicing in full the final week of the preseason and will be ready for the season opener.
Herbert is coming off a 2023 season that ended on a sour note.
He missed the final four games of the season due to a finger injury.
Herbert ended the season ranking 11th in the league in EPA per dropback (0.07) and 15th in success rate (43.6%).
That success rate was the lowest of his four years in the league.
His 65.1% completion rate was also his lowest as a starter.
With the hire of Jim Harbaugh and moving away from the crux of their offensive touches a year ago without Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett, this will be a complete revamp offensively.
Harbaugh and new offensive coordinator Greg Roman have created efficient offenses at all of their stops.
We should anticipate the Chargers to potentially exceed expectations, but when your offense is predicated on efficiency over volume, that makes it tricky for us to highlight individual pieces for fantasy success.
When Harbaugh and Roman were together in San Francisco from 2011-2014, the 49ers were 30th in the NFL in dropback rate (54.0%) and 31st in passing plays per game (30.7).
Even when Harbaugh had an elite quarterback prospect in Andrew Luck at Stanford, he only threw the ball 27.1 times per game.
We have seen a lot worse quarterbacks in terms of talent compared to Herbert putting up hyper-efficient passing production paired with Harbaugh and Roman at their various stops in college and the pros.
Herbert is the best passer that either Harbaugh or Roman has had in the pros.
I would expect Herbert to challenge his best marks in areas such as EPA per dropback and yards per pass attempt.
But he will have to live on elite efficiency to catapult his fantasy lines over volume.
Paired with his new set of pass catchers outside of Josh Palmer, I am opening the year with Herbert as a floor-based QB2 for fantasy that can compete as a back-end QB1.
The Raiders were not a pushover defensively last season, ranking 11th in passing points allowed per game (12.6).
Only twice all season did they allow more than two touchdown passes in a game.
They faced one of the easiest schedules of backups, but that also included games against Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jared Goff, who all scored fewer points against the Raiders than their seasonal average.
Gardner Minshew: Minshew will open as the starter for Las Vegas after winning the competition between him and Aidan O’Connell this preseason.
Minshew ended the 2023 season starting a career-high 13 games for the Colts, going 7-6 with one of his wins coming against the Raiders.
Minshew completed 62.2% of his passes (26th) for 6.7 Y/A (23rd), closing the season 18th in EPA per dropback (-0.01) and 27th in success rate (39.2%) among the 32 passers that qualified for the league’s passer rating.
Since Minshew entered the league in 2019, he ranks 34th in success rate per dropback, right behind Mac Jones and right ahead of Desmond Ridder.
Minshew had three QB1 scoring weeks, the same as O’Connell.
We are also catching the Raiders as a road underdog with an implied team total below 20 points.
Given all of that, it is hard to treat Minshew as more than a back-end QB2 in Superflex formats.
If you are using Minshew in those formats, we still have questions about this Charger defense.
Harbaugh brought in Jesse Minter as defensive coordinator, who was the defensive coordinator with Harbs at Michigan the past two seasons.
The defensive side of the ball still has veteran talent, but Minter will look to turn around a group that allowed 15.6 passing points per game in 2023, 29th in the league.
Running Back
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More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs -- Free | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Eagles -- Free | Friday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Lions | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ 49ers -- Free | Monday Night Football |
