Eagles vs. Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Packers and Eagles on Friday night in Brazil.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts: Through natural regression coming off a huge 2022 season that meant facing a harder schedule paired with playing through a knee injury, Hurts took a slight step back last season.

Hurts completed 65.4% of his passes (15th in the league) for 7.2 yards per pass attempt (14th) with a 4.3% touchdown rate (18th) and a 2.8% interception rate (27th).

He was 12th in EPA per dropback.

After rushing for 52.3 yards and 50.7 yards per game during his first two seasons as a starter, Hurts rushed for only 35.6 yards per game last season.

He suffered a knee injury in Week 6 that impacted his bottom line as a runner, but Hurts was only averaging 41.2 yards rushing per game before that injury.

He averaged 12.7 passing points per game (QB22) after 14.9 passing points per game (QB10) the previous season.

But Hurts rushed for 15 touchdowns, giving him double-digit rushing touchdowns in all of the past three seasons.

Hurts will look to recapture some of that 2022 passing magic alongside new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, his third coordinator in as many years.

Moore has had mixed results in stops with the Cowboys and Chargers.

His addition should be an improvement over Brian Johnson from a year ago, who previously had no experience as an NFL offensive coordinator.

This passing game was just stale as the season progressed in 2023.

Moore’s previous stops indicate that this offense will be at least more modern when throwing the ball than the Eagles were a year ago.

The Eagles were 30th in the NFL in using pre-snap motion last season at 25.5% of dropbacks.

The league average was 43.7%.

Moore’s Chargers were fourth in the league at 57.5%.

In 2022 with Dallas, the Cowboys were 10th at 44.8%.

Hurts was blitzed on 33.6% of his dropbacks last season, the second-highest rate in the league.

Under Moore, the Eagles need more answers against blitzing with coverage behind it.

Hurts has had early-career struggles against zone blitzes.

Over the past three seasons, his 63.8% completion rate against zone blitzes is 33rd in the league.

His 7.4 yards per attempt is 27th while his 1.7% touchdown rate is 26th.

That said, the Packers were a pass defense with plenty of issues in 2023.

They ranked 17th in completion rate (65.3%), 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2), 18th in yards allowed per completion (10.9), and 18th in touchdown rate (4.0%) allowed.

That led to them ranking 24th in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (.043).

Even when factoring in the struggles Hurts has had against zone blitzes, Hurts is locked in as a QB1 option.

He has a rushing upside, a full cupboard of weaponry in terms of skill players, and the overall game environment here could produce a lot of points.

Jordan Love (TRUST): In his first season as a full-time starter, Love ended the regular season with 32 touchdown passes, which was second in the league.

Green Bay calibrated their offense with a quicker passing game to facilitate Love’s growth.

Through Week 10, the Packers carried a 3-6 record while Love lived as a long-range gunslinger.

Over that span, Love averaged 9.2 air yards per pass attempt, which was third in the NFL.

During that period, 15.7% of his passes were on throws 20 or more yards downfield (2nd in the NFL) while he ranked 29th in the NFL in throws past the line of scrimmage but fewer than 10 yards downfield.

Living on a diet of downfield throws, Love also struggled on those targets.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield during that span, he was 28th in completion rate (41.7%) with 3 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

The Packers then went 7-3 over their final 10 games, with Love throwing multiple touchdown passes in 9 of those 10.

Love, Matt LaFleur, and offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich got on the same page as the offense focused on a quicker passing attack.

Over the final 10 games of the season, Love averaged 7.7 air yards per attempt, which was 15th in the league.

His deep ball rate went to 10.8% of his passes, which was 22nd in the league.

47.6% of his passes were out within 2.5 seconds over that span (11th in the league) after 45.4% prior (18th).

This also aided him in being a better downfield passer when he was not tasked to live on those throws.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield over those games, Love was seventh in the NFL with a 53.5% completion rate, throwing 8 touchdowns and 1 interception on those attempts.

All of that had a major impact on his fantasy output.

Over those opening 10 games, Love was 18th in fantasy points per game (17.5) with just two games as a QB1 scorer.

Over the final 10 games, Love averaged 21.2 points per game (fifth) and was a QB1 scorer in seven of his final eight regular-season games.

I would expect to see some marriage from the front half of Love’s 2023 and the closing numbers.

Love threw 7.8 touchdowns over expectations, which elevated a 5.5% touchdown rate. Only Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson threw more touchdowns over expected last season.

Love was second in the NFL in end zone passes (53) and end zone touchdowns (21) behind Prescott.

All 11 of Love’s completions in goal-to-go situations went for touchdowns.

That said, Love is not someone we should anticipate bottoming out.

Even over that front half of 2023, he was in the top half of weekly scoring in 7-of-9 games.

Putting together his floor with the usage changes that the team had over the season, Love has plenty of QB1 appeal here.

The Eagles have added Bryce Huff, Devin White, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Quinyon Mitchell but also have a lot to improve on from a year ago.

The Eagles were 31st in the league in passing points allowed per game (18.2) last season after ranking fifth in that department in 2022 (11.3).

The largest difference was that the Eagles allowed a 5.5% touchdown rate last season (30th) after a 4.0% rate (13th) in 2022.

The Eagles have a new coordinator and enough talent for improvement, and I would expect them to fall somewhere in the middle of their final numbers over the past two seasons this year, but this Green Bay passing game will be a huge test to open up the season.

Running Back

Saquon Barkley: After two injury-filled seasons in 2020-2021, Barkley has bounced back as the RB5 and RB13 in overall PPR scoring in each of the past two seasons.

Going to the Eagles is a huge environment upgrade for Barkley.

The Giants won more than six games just once since drafting Barkley and have never finished higher than 15th in points per game over that stretch.

The Giants were 30th or worse in scoring three times over those six seasons.

The Eagles have finished 12th, third, and eighth in scoring over the past three seasons with Hurts as their quarterback.

Barkley has not played with an elite offensive teammate since Odell Beckham, and that came for just one season.

The Eagles have been third and first in yards before contact per running back rush the past two years.

Philadelphia was first in the NFL in run block win rate (77%) per ESPN in 2023. Per Pro Football Focus, the Eagles were third in collective run blocking grade.

The Giants were 31st in ESPN’s run block win rate (67%) and ranked 30th in run blocking grade as a team per PFF.

Even with the retirement of Jason Kelce, this is a massive step up in offensive line talent.

There is a question about how much Barkley will be impacted by the tush-push, but there is some overlap to Barkley that reminds me of when Christian McCaffrey went to San Francisco.

When CMC was traded, there was a contingent who suggested that it was actually “bad” for his fantasy output since the 49ers had so many options to limit McCaffrey’s touches and that Kyle Shanahan did not throw to his running backs.

The acquisition of Barkley here for the Eagles (a team that has never invested in running back under Howie Roseman) is a signal that things are going to change in terms of their running back usage.

Even if not, from Weeks 2-12 last season before their 1-7 finish, D’Andre Swift was the RB5 in total PPR points and the RB5 in expected points.

If the Eagles are an effective team and offense, there could be an element to overthinking things with Barkley.

If the Eagles are hitting as a team, then we can make a good bet that Barkley is part of the ride.

In a potentially high-scoring game, Barkley has plenty of upside as an RB1.

Green Bay was a run defense with plenty of holes in 2023.

They ranked 25th in success rate against running back runs (60.6%), 24th in the rate of running back runs to result in a first down or touchdown (23.1%), and 21st in rushing yardage allowed per game to backfields (94.3 yards).

Finishing plays was a huge issue for the Green Bay run defense.

They allowed running backs to average 3.13 yards per rush after contact, which was 27th in the league.

Josh Jacobs (TRUST): A year after leading the NFL in rushing in 2022, the bottom fell out on Jacobs in 2023.

Jacobs only had five games higher than RB20 in weekly scoring before suffering a quad injury in Week 14 that sidelined him for the remainder of the season.

He had a career-low season in just about every department as a runner.

From an advanced metric perspective, it was even worse than it looked in the counting stats department.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes in the regular season, Jacobs only bested Kareem Hunt in the rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards.

His 3.9% explosive run rate was by far the lowest rate of his career.

The only running back on the same list to have a lower rate of runs gaining a first down or touchdown was Dameon Pierce.

The only running backs with a lower rate of yards after contact per carry were Pierce, Hunt, and Jamaal Williams.

Jacobs just turned 26 a month ago.

There is plenty of a runway left here for a bounce back in a more potent offensive environment.

With the way that Aaron Jones closed last season as a workhorse back for the Packers, Jacobs has a large opportunity in front of him to hit the ground running as an RB1.

Everything has broken in favor of Jacobs receiving a large workload to open the season, something that was murky this summer after Matt LaFleur came out and stated that he is “a big believer that you need multiple running backs to carry the ball.”

AJ Dillon was placed on season-ending injured reserve.

MarShawn Lloyd suffered a preseason hamstring injury and did not practice for the final three weeks of the preseason.

Lloyd avoided landing on the IR himself, but he is expected to be limited to open the season.

That leaves just Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson as the primary ball carries.

Philadelphia was 22nd in yards allowed before contact per running back run (1.35 yards) and ranked 29th in success rate (59.9%) against those runs.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown: Brown has closed his two seasons with the Eagles at WR6 and WR5 in overall scoring.

There was a stretch last season in which Brown appeared as if he would rival Tyreek Hill as the WR1 in fantasy.

Through nine weeks, Brown was the WR2 in overall scoring and the WR3 in expected points per game.

The Eagles then had a team-wide collapse over the back half of the season that was impacted by play calling, schedule, and a knee injury to Jalen Hurts.

From Week 10 on, Brown was the WR33 in overall scoring and the WR19 in expected points per game.

Brown went from 3.04 yards per route run over that front split down to 1.84 yards per route run over the back half.

Despite the uneven splits from last year, Brown still totaled a career-high 106 catches for 1,456 yards.

The only other wide receiver with over 1,400 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons is Hill.

One thing we talked about with Hurts was the transition of going from Shane Steichen to Brian Johnson created a stale element to this passing game.

The Eagles saw their use of play action dip from 30.0% in 2022 down to 25.8% last season.

They went from a 33.1% rate of pre-snap motion in 2022 down to 27.9% last season.

Brown has averaged 2.80 yards per route run on plays with motion since he entered the league, which is fifth among all wideouts.

Kellen Moore has done a lot for his lead wideouts in terms of moving them around the formation.

We will see who gets the bump in slot snaps between Brown and DeVonta Smith. They had nearly identical slot rates last season.

Smith was more effective from the slot. Brown averaged 1.65 yards per route run from the slot as opposed to 2.80 yards per route run outside.

Brown had wide splits from Hurts based on coverage last season.

He was targeted on 23.4% of his routes against zone coverage as opposed to a gaudy 39.5% rate against man coverage.

That target rate still led the team against zone while Brown still posted 2.28 yards per route run against zone when targeted. He just was peppered with targets when the Eagles faced man coverage.

As bad as the Packers were against the pass last season, they still ranked 7th in points allowed per game to outside wide receivers.

Jaire Alexander also only appeared in nine games, including the postseason.

Brown is a full-fledged WR1 option, but we are looking for him to get the bump in slot snaps out of the box to open up his ceiling here.

DeVonta Smith (TRUST): Smith has been the WR15 and WR21 in points per game playing alongside A.J. Brown for the past two seasons.

The only shade to throw at Smith is that he is not the best wide receiver on his current team. Otherwise, he may be a locked-in fantasy WR1.

Smith has only run 115 routes the past two seasons with Brown off the field, but he has averaged a target on 27.8% of those routes with 2.49 yards per route run.

On 1,215 routes with Brown on the field, those rates dip to a 20.6% target rate per route with 1.91 yards per route.

In 2023, Smith ran 562 routes with Brown on the field at the same time, accounting for 22.3% of the targets while Brown was at 33.8%.

That created a target gap of 155-to-102 in favor of Brown.

That said, there is some signal here for Smith to benefit in this matchup.

Smith should be the favorite to get more slot snaps based on his success when moving inside.

Smith averaged 2.31 yards per route run from the slot compared to 1.65 per route for Brown last season.

He was targeted on 21.6% of his slot routes compared to a 16.2% rate for Brown.

While the Packers were 7th in points allowed per game to outside wide receivers, they were 22nd in points allowed per game to receivers from the slot.

Christian Watson: Watson was marred by hamstring issues for the second straight season, missing eight regular season games and playing only 46% of the snaps in another game.

Watson has missed various times across two seasons with three different hamstring injuries, a knee issue, and a concussion.

He put in extensive work this offseason to correct the issue with his hamstring.

This offseason, Watson went to the University of Wisconsin’s School of Medicine, which was given a $4 million grant by the NFL to study the prevention and treatment of those injuries.

The report from this visit was that he had a 20% difference in muscle strength between his right and left legs, which they have shaved down to 8-10%.

While we will not fully know if this year will be the first full season we get from Watson, there are reasons to keep the lights on for him and the upside he has shown when healthy.

Even in a crowded receiver room, when Watson was on the field at full strength, this passing game was going through him.

When he was on the field for 270 routes last season, Watson received a team-high 22.8% of the targets.

From Weeks 5-13 when he was at full capacity, Watson led the team with 49 targets and 4 touchdowns.

There were 159 passing plays last season in which Green Bay had all of Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed on the field at the same time.

On those plays, Watson led the team with a 25.9% target share and 2.11 yards per route run.

Where the Packers got him heavily involved was in the end zone.

Watson only ended up running a route on 43.1% of the team dropbacks including the playoffs, but he amassed 14 targets in the end zone on those plays.

For context, Doubs led the team with 17 end zone targets. The next closest player on the roster (Reed) had 9.

26.4% of Watson’s targets were in the end zone, which was the highest rate for any wide receiver in the NFL who had 50 or more targets on the season.

The Packers have the wide receiver depth to keep Watson in a rotation, which could help him stay healthy.

I believe we will see Watson give up some snaps to Dontayvion Wicks while Doubs is the best bet to play close to a full-time role.

That can make Watson a boom-or-bust FLEX, but if his end zone role remains static, there is appeal here for an upside case (especially for single-game DFS).

The Eagles were a secondary we attacked with wide receiver play last season.

They have additions in Gardner-Johnson and Mitchell this season, but they will be tested by one of the better collective receiving groups in the league right away.

Last season, the Eagles allowed the most points per game to opposing wide receivers, anchored by a 6.6% touchdown rate on targets to the position (31st).

Romeo Doubs: Five different wide receivers ran over 100 pass routes last year for Green Bay, with only Doubs (80.1%) running a route on two-thirds of the team’s passing plays.

Jordan Love only had two dropbacks this preseason, but Doubs was the only wide receiver on the field for both of them.

Doubs led the team in targets with 96, catching 59 passes for 674 yards and 8 touchdowns.

He was behind both Reed and Wicks in target rate per route run (19.5%), but he led the team in end zone targets (17) and playing time.

Doubs is likely more of a fly in the ointment for hopeful breakouts for Reed and Wicks, but he is a touchdown-or-bust asset in a matchup against a secondary that allowed the second-highest touchdown rate to wideouts a year ago.

Jayden Reed: Reed ended his rookie year as the WR27 in points per game.

Among all rookie wide receivers last season, Reed was fourth in yards per route run (2.05) behind only Puka Nacua (2.60), Rashee Rice (2.41), and Tank Dell (2.22).

Reed was third in target rate per route (24.4%), behind only Nacua (28.0%) and Rice (26.2%).

Reed then added 119 yards and another 2 scores on the ground.

Setting the table to build on a strong rookie season, we still need Reed to gain full-field usage and a full-time role in the offense.

Reed was targeted on 18.4% of his routes with 1.45 yards per route run when Watson was on the field last year as opposed to a 29.2% target rate per route with 2.55 yards per route run with Watson absent.

While his rate stats were strong, Reed was 10th among all rookie wideouts in route participation (61.0%) and was limited to only playing in the slot.

His 72.3% slot rate was second among all rookies behind Josh Downs (77.9%).

The good news is that the Eagles allowed the most points per game last season to opposing slot receivers.

The backfield situation entering the year for Green Bay could also lead to a few more rushes for Reed to open the season.

He still needs to run hot in the touchdown department while having limitations due to his role, but Reed is WR3/FLEX-worthy in this matchup.

He had 10 total touchdowns on 6.5 expected scores based on his usage as a rookie.

He was 10th at the position in red zone points scored despite sitting 26th in expected points.

Reed only had 14.7% of the team’s red zone targets including the postseason.

Dontayvion Wicks: When pressed into the lineup as a rookie, Wicks was hyper-efficient.

Wicks ended up running 285 pass routes in the regular season, which was third on the team.

On those routes, Wicks was second on the team with 2.04 yards per route run (Reed was at 2.05).

Wicks had a first down or touchdown on 50.0% of his 58 targets, which not only led the Packers but was tied for fourth among all wide receivers in the league last season to see 50 or more targets come their way.

The rub for Wicks is finding playing time when this receiver room is at full strength.

He had only a 19.9% route participation rate on dropbacks with Watson available.

That rate went down to 13.3% when both Watson and Reed were on the field and then down to just one route all season with Watson, Reed, and Doubs on the field, who still are projected to be the WR1-WR3.

Wicks was on the field for one of the two dropbacks for Love this preseason, but it resulted in a 65-yard touchdown catch.

Wicks is the hardest of the Green Bay wideouts to gauge based on his playing time being the most up in the air until we see how the Packers plan to rotate him this year, but he carries single-game DFS upside or a long-range FLEX option in deep formats chasing the matchup.

Jahan Dotson: The Eagles were already 10th in the NFL last season in the rate of 11 personnel (69.7%), so the addition of Dotson does not mean he will see a bump in opportunity.

What he needs to do is show that he can earn targets.

Dotson was fifth in the NFL among wide receivers in routes run last season (37.3 per game) but ranked 115th among wide receivers in target rate per route run (13.1%).

After averaging 1.39 yards per route run as a rookie, Dotson fell all of the way down to 0.82 yards per route run in his second season, which was 118th in the league at his position.

Even as a single-game DFS option, Dotson takes a step of faith after joining the team just two weeks ago.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert: Goedert was impacted the most by the dip in passing production the Eagles had last season compared to 2022.

He averaged just 42.3 receiving yards per game, his fewest in a season since 2019.

His 10.0 yards per reception average was the lowest of his career.

Part of his lull in output could have come from playing through several injuries again, ultimately missing three games.

Goedert just turned 29 this January with no true fantasy breakout on his resume.

Over the past two seasons, he has just five games as a top-six fantasy scorer with only two weeks as a top-three scorer.

Playing alongside A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith has made earning targets tough and suppressed any true breakout for fantasy points.

Goedert has been targeted on 17.6% of his routes run the past two seasons with both Brown and Smith on the field.

He has run only 126 routes with either Brown or Smith off the field but has been targeted on 26.2% of those routes.

Goedert is a fine safety net as a floor-based tight end, but his spike weeks are reliant on touchdowns.

With both on the field, Goedert has just five targets in the end zone compared to 26 for Brown and 14 for Smith.

Green Bay allowed just a 66.9% catch rate to tight ends in 2023 (5th), but they did allow 8.1 yards per target (30th) and a 6.6% touchdown rate (26th) to the position to give Goedert some matchup appeal.

Packers TEs: In the battle of the year two tight ends in Green Bay, I am still leaning on Luke Musgrave having an edge over Tucker Kraft.

In their rookie seasons, Musgrave ran 295 pass routes and averaged 1.42 yards per route run.

Kraft ran 336 pass routes and averaged 1.13 yards per route run.

Musgrave was targeted on 18.0% of his routes compared to a 14.6% rate for Kraft.

Despite Musgrave having an edge in efficiency over Kraft as a rookie, Kraft accounted for the highest-scoring fantasy game between the two while posting five of the top seven scoring weeks between this duo.

If I had to choose one for single-game DFS, I would side with Musgrave.

That said, it is hard to find a clear path where either of these tight ends can compete with being the third or better option in this passing game.

Jordan Love targeted tight ends on 19.1% of his throws last season, which was 22nd in the league.

Love was ninth in the NFL with a 64.4% throw rate to his wide receivers.

Both Musgrave and Kraft each had just one game all season in which they broke a 20% target share.

The additions of Devin White and C.J. Gardner-Johnson should have their largest impact shoring up a middle-of-the-field pass defense that struggled to cover tight ends in 2023.

Last year, the Eagles allowed a 75.4% catch rate (28th) and a 5.1% touchdown rate (21st) to tight ends.

More Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: