As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Rhamondre Stevenson, Ja’Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas, and every other notable Patriot as well as in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
- Rhamondre Stevenson is the only Patriot consistently drafted in the top 130 picks, and he is currently the 21st running back off the board.
- Out of 27 rookie wide receivers to run 100 or more pass routes (he ran 330), DeMario Douglas ranked sixth with 1.70 yards per route run and fourth in target rate per route run (23.9%).
- Stevenson went from second in the NFL in yards after contact per rush in 2022 (3.81) down to 32nd last season (2.80).
2023 Patriots Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 236 (31st)
- Total Offense: 4,696 (30th)
- Plays: 1,020 (28th)
- Yards Per Play: 4.6 (29th)
- Offensive TDs: 25 (29th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.08 (32nd)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 28.5 (20th)
2024 Patriots Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Jerod Mayo
- Offensive Coordinator: Alex Van Pelt
While it is never a good idea to completely write off an offense for fantasy purposes, the Patriots are a tough team to get excited about in drafts.
The ADP reflects that lack of excitement.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the only player consistently drafted in the top 130 picks, and he is currently the 21st running back off the board.
From a tendency perspective, new OC Alex Van Pelt spent the last four seasons running the offense in Cleveland.
Although he did not call the plays, he played a major role in game planning, so looking at the Browns’ tendencies makes sense when trying to project forward.
Over the last four seasons, Cleveland ranks 23rd in dropback rate in the first three quarters of games within 14 points – an attempt to remove game script as much as possible.
The Browns ranked 25th in the rate of 11 personnel, using two tight ends on just over 18% of their snaps and three tight ends on 11% of their snaps, which ranked first.
There have been some changes to those tendencies, especially late last season, but given the offensive personnel Van Pelt is working with, an offense that uses big formations and leans into the run makes some sense.
So far this preseason, the Patriots are 11th in 12 personnel usage at 31.1%.
That is not the best news for a receiving corps that already faces a tough path to fantasy relevance and might not get as many overall routes as receivers on teams that use more 11 personnel.
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2023 Patriots Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 626 (23rd)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 51.5% (19th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -3.5% (22nd)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 35.6% (16th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 43% (32nd)
2024 Patriots Passing Game Preview:
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