As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Josh Allen, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, and every other notable Bill as well as in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
- After averaging 15.8 passing fantasy points per game over the first 10 weeks (9th), Josh Allen averaged 13.2 from Week 11 until the end of the regular season (17th).
- Over the final four games of the season including the playoffs, Dalton Kincaid averaged 12.5 air yards per target with four downfield targets, one more than he had through 16 weeks.
- Even with James Cook handling 62.9% of the total running back carries under Joe Brady last season, he got the ball on 27.3% of the Bills’ carries in goal-to-go situations from Week 11 on.
2023 Bills Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 451 (6th)
- Total Offense: 6,366 (4th)
- Plays: 1,115 (5th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.7 (5th)
- Offensive TDs: 51 (5th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.38 (5th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 27.8 (9th)
2024 Bills Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Sean McDermott
- Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady
Given the coordinator change midway through the season, it is important to look at this offense under then interim and now full-time OC Joe Brady.
In the first 10 weeks, the Bills averaged 2.45 points per drive (4th), 6.0 yards per play (3rd), and a 58.3% neutral pass rate (8th).
From when Brady took over in Week 11 until the end of the regular season, the Bills averaged 2.27 points per drive (8th), 5.4 yards per play (14th), and a 53.3% neutral pass rate (11th).
That neutral pass rate shows that while their pass rate did drop, game script played a large role in the Bills having the second-lowest dropback rate from Week 11 onward last season. They went 6-1 over that span.
That said, the Bills averaged 9.3 running back carries in the first half of games over the first 10 weeks (26th) and 11.3 from Week 11 until the end of the regular season (9th), a change that has little to do with game script.
Given the decision to move on from Stefon Diggs this offseason and the lack of a clear No. 1 option in the passing game, it seems likely the Bills continue to lean more into the run than in the past.
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2023 Bills Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 651 (1st)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 56.1% (8th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 0.4% (8th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 35.6% (16th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 64% (6th)
2024 Bills Passing Game Preview:
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