As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and every other notable Bear as well as in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
- Justin Fields faced a pressure rate of 48.8% last season, but Tyson Bagent only saw pressure on 33.3% of his dropbacks, a number that would have ranked ninth among NFL teams.
- D’Andre Swift is coming off a good season overall with the Eagles, but he created fewer big plays than his days with the Lions (9.6% explosive run rate) and was well below his career rates in targets per route and yards per target.
- Last year, the Bears ranked 31st when targeting RBs in both yards per attempt (4.4) and success rate (31%), so a return to form for Swift in the passing game would represent a massive improvement.
2023 Bears Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 360 (18th)
- Total Offense: 5,495 (20th)
- Plays: 1,097 (9th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.0 (22nd)
- Offensive TDs: 35 (21st)
- Points Per Drive: 1.88 (13th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 30.4 (31st)
2024 Bears Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Matt Eberflus
- Offensive Coordinator: Shane Waldron
There were big changes to this offense in the offseason including the addition of Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator.
Waldron spent three years as the coordinator in Seattle, taking the standard path of Pete Carroll OCs during his later years with the Seahawks.
Waldron started conservatively with a 48.3% neutral pass rate in 2021, bumped that up to 59.2%, fifth in the league, while helping Geno Smith to his best season in 2022, and then was reined back in by Carroll a bit with a 55.6% rate last season.
Given he comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, expecting him to be in that 55% range for neutral pass rate makes sense, which would be a big departure for the Bears.
Over the last three years, the Bears ranked second to last with a 46.1% neutral pass rate.
The other big change comes at quarterback, where No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams will take over for the now traded Justin Fields.
Perhaps Waldron is a little more conservative with a rookie at quarterback, but projecting more dropbacks for this offense overall is a no-brainer.
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2023 Bears Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 618 (24th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 48.6% (27th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -4.9% (27th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 44.8% (32%)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 64% (5th)
2024 Bears Passing Game Preview:
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