As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Bryce Young, Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, Jonathon Brooks, and every other notable Panther as well as in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
- The Panthers were 10.3 touchdowns under expected based on their yardage total a season ago, the second-worst mark in the league behind the Jets (12.6).
- Dave Canales has already promised to be “stubborn” with the run, but the Panthers were as run heavy as they could be last year (-5.4% expected pass rate) and finished 10th in total dropbacks.
- The Panthers were 30th in yards created before contact on running back carries last season and finished 30th in ESPN’s run block win rate metric.
2023 Panthers Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 236 (31st)
- Total Offense: 4,510 (32nd)
- Plays: 1,096 (10th)
- Yards Per Play: 4.1 (32nd)
- Offensive TDs: 20 (31st)
- Points Per Drive: 1.19 (30th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 28.8 (25th)
2024 Panthers Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Dave Canales
- Offensive Coordinator: Brad Idzik
There are two things to discuss when taking a top-down look at the Panthers offense.
First, they have a new staff running the show after they hired Dave Canales away from the Bucs.
Canales was the quarterbacks coach for Geno Smith’s career resurgence in Seattle two seasons ago, and he spent last year as the offensive coordinator for the rejuvenated Baker Mayfield.
Now he is tasked with turning around Bryce Young, who is coming off a dreadful rookie season.
From a tendency perspective, the Bucs were mid-pack in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected last season, but they were more run-heavy overall on first down.
On all first and 10 plays, the Bucs were 3% under their expected pass rate.
On first downs in the first half – an attempt to remove game script from the equation – Tampa Bay ranked 31st in the league with a 44.5% dropback rate.
Only the Steelers ran more on first down in the first half of games last season.
Canales has already promised to be “stubborn” about the run, so it is fair to assume the Panthers will lean into that side of the offense when possible.
The question is how often that will be the case for a team that led for 96 plays last season, easily the fewest in the league and the third-fewest over the last 10 seasons.
The Panthers were 5.4% under their expected pass rate last season, ranked 29th in the league, but they finished 10th in dropbacks thanks to game script.
The second thing to look at is there is a very strong chance the Panthers are better on offense just based on regression trends.
Rich Hribar went through several factors that point to a better offensive output even without considering any coaching and personnel changes, and I would recommend going to read those articles in our Draft Kit, but this one stands out.
The Panthers were 10.3 touchdowns under expected based on their yardage total a season ago, the second-worst mark in the league behind the Jets (12.6).
Interestingly, Canales’ Bucs were in the same situation heading into last season, and they regressed to the mean in terms of expected touchdowns under Canales in 2023.
23 teams have averaged over 200 yards per touchdown from 2010-2022, a group the Panthers joined last season.
22 of those teams scored more touchdowns the next season with 13 of those gaining 10 or more touchdowns.
Don’t miss out on the best fantasy football coverage in the business
Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.
Best ball season is in full swing, and traditional drafts are right around the corner.
Sharp Football has everything you need to prepare for both in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.
Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich’s comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.
Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!
2023 Panthers Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 681 (10th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 47.3% (29th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -5.4% (29th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 41.1% (29th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 54% (23rd)
2024 Panthers Passing Game Preview:
To continue reading this article
and gain access to all of Rich Hribar’s industry leading content both before and during the season, click below to purchase our fantasy football bundle.
Learn More
