As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Russell Wilson, George Pickens, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, and every other notable Steeler as well as in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
- Arthur Smith was 11% under his expected pass rate over his final two seasons with the Falcons. Last season, the Steelers were 6.2% under their expected pass rate.
- 27.9% of George Pickens’ career targets have come at least 20 yards downfield, which would have ranked 13th among qualifying receivers last season and fits well with his new quarterbacks.
- Over the past three seasons with Atlanta, Smith’s teams were second in the NFL with a 29.9% target rate to the tight end position. With the Titans 2019-2020, those teams were fifth in the NFL with a 27.3% target rate to tight ends.
2023 Steelers Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 304 (28th)
- Total Offense: 5,173 (25th)
- Plays: 1,029 (26th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.0 (22nd)
- Offensive TDs: 29 (28th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.48 (28th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 29.5 (29th)
2024 Steelers Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Mike Tomlin
- Offensive Coordinator: Arthur Smith
The Steelers completely remodeled their quarterback room and got a new OC in Arthur Smith this offseason.
Given what we know about Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, it is fair to assume the passing game in Pittsburgh will focus on big plays and short throws.
Wilson was the James Harden of quarterbacks last season.
He was second among qualifying QBs in the rate of throws behind the line of scrimmage (layups), and he was third in the rate of throws 20 or more yards downfield (three pointers).
Wilson attempted just 11% of his passes in the intermediate areas of the field (10 to 20 yards), the lowest rate in the league.
That rate was 2.5% behind the next closest quarterback.
This is a trend for Wilson, who threw at least 20 yards downfield on 18.5% of his throws in his final season with the Seahawks and 16.6% of the time in 2022.
Fields ranked one spot ahead of Wilson in the percentage of deep throws last season and was similar in his target location frequency across the board.
All of that matched with the Steelers trading away Diontae Johnson suggests a passing attack that will mostly throw around the line of scrimmage and mix in some shot plays.
We should also see this offense try to run the football.
Smith was 11% under his expected pass rate over his final two seasons with the Falcons. Last season, the Steelers were 6.2% under their expected pass rate.
With what should once again be a solid defense, the Steelers likely do not want to and will not have much reason to push the passing game.
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2023 Steelers Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 564 (31st)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 45.3% (32nd)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -6.2% (30th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 38.5% (22nd)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 58% (17th)
2024 Steelers Passing Game Preview:
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